A decent race and one where several at bigger prices do somewhat jump off the page so we'll be going speculative with tips and staking.

 

At the top of the market, I want to take on No Rematch who has clearly got ability but had Training issues, won on only start last season off a break of 350 days, now off another 215 days and is around 4/1 in a competitive race. Its lightly raced; handicap mark has gone 109 > 117 > 126. It's an obvious danger but too skinny for me. Morning Spirit for Jonjo could be equally promising but had a crashing fall on seasonal debut and I'd like to see how that may have affected confidence before investing but another one with clear chances if getting round and regaining confidence quickly.

 

Fausinovick is also near the head of the market and has been runner up on last 5 starts, mostly smaller fields for the Tizzard yard, it's had a win operation and we'll need to see what impact that has especially in this big field. Clearly a talented horse with quirks, so far!!

 

So a clear risk in bucking the market trend and the race is complicated by the presence of a number on seasonal debut, all with form when fit, but we have to take fitness on trust and none of these stand out as being massively successful on seasonal debut in the past. For that reason I've left out, Classic Ben, who was runner up on seasonal debut last year but on balance this could be a bit too deep the first time up this season for Stuart Edmonds. De Young Warrior comes in off 304 days off for Jeremy Scott and looks a likely one to add to your Trackers as clearly progressive last year, Little Red lion runs off a break of 292 for the Pipe yard (they also have another runner off a 1000+ day break) and Little Red Lion has a tendency to win (4 wins in slightly lesser company) or to fall, so another to add to your trackers but possibly in Class 4 at this stage. I feel Class 3 may be a bit too warm too for Fergals consistent Huntsmans Jog after a run of second places and one to note also after a wind operation and new aids today is Lamanver Pippin who could be seriously well handicapped and who also needs tracking closely in to the New Year. Volcano too could be winning more races after 4 wins last year off marks from 101 to 125 and back off a mark of 127 with a 3lbs Claim another to track if that mark continues to edge down after today.

 

So a race to watch and analyse as it could throw up a lot of decent form.

 

I was left with 4 who I felt had the best chance at decent value on the day. I'll have a small shrapnel interest and totally your discretion if you want to do the same on ST ERNEY who won here off 110, was runner up off 115, is still below best win mark though of 122 and clearly likes it here for a small yard that can fight well above their weight. A small interest too for me in COUP DE PINCEAU who won a Class 3 off 131 at Taunton in March, has struggled with higher mark since then but is now down to an effective mark of 123 (128 with a 5lbs Claim) and who has good course and distance form here too. Those pair at your discretion.

 

My 2 main selections in order of preference are REDFORD ROAD for Nigel Twiston-Davies with Sam in the saddle, this one gets a bit of cut for the first time after a few warm up runs and has dropped to a very nice mark now, 9lbs below last win mark and one who looks primed to deliver a bigger run. I also think that CAPTAIN TOMMY at big odds is just too well in here to ignore. A win mark of 122 for David Bridgewater, indications last time that it's turn may not be too far away and ticks all the boxes in terms of right grade, the track, the trip, the Going and this mark today of 120, so no excuses and I think overlooked by the market.

 

TRACKERS - Redford Road + Captain Tommy (shrapnel at your discretion - St Erney @ 12/1  + Coup De Pinceau @ 28/1)