It's hard to fathom the "Good Going" but seems to be accurate enough although Newton Abbot just down the road had a lot of rain and was Heavy late last week. There is morning rain so I think if we assume Good to Soft we won't be far wrong. In truth nothing in the race should really have any complaints unless there is some torrential morning rain that's not forecast.

 

A race in which just about every one of the 18 could have some claim of a chance of placing, some further back in the form book than others. It's a case therefore of working through the fit ones, the ones who have run well fresh in the past and those who may need the run, especially those who probably want further and softer, who will be of far more interest at subsequent Fixtures here.

 

At the top end of the market we have FORTESCUE @ 6/1 who is a Course and Distance winner winning off marks of 112, 117, 121 and makes seasonal debut off a mark of 129 here with a decent 5lbs claimer. Clearly progressive and if he did take this they would be looking to aim a lot higher you'd think. I won't put you off a small win saver (or even e/w bet) as simply impossible to know where the ceiling is for the horse. Yard in form and has won off a break.

 

Killer Clown is a P2P winner, well touted by Yard but fell on seasonal debut so may just need the run and a confidence boost but definitely one to both fear and to put in your trackers. Orchardstown Cross won this last year on seasonal debut, 7lbs more here, a clear danger and I think the more it rains the bigger its chances and one I respect and rate but not quite sure it will follow up, I'll take it on the chin if it does.

 

Of the remainder, Broadclyst runs well fresh, 3 mile P2P background and would be a very topical winner owned by a Mrs Trump (you can write that script now cant you). Classic Ben I think is a particularly nice horse and one to track for sure, big danger today but may just need this on balance of past evidence. Le Borzelo has some decent Course form, 3rd in this last season off 118, had already had a run though and the mark of 129 may just find him out. Rebel Royal could be running in to some form but niggle about this trip at a decent pace. Others who look sure to win races and like all of these need to be tracked are Everlanes who made a quiet return but who could be fit enough to win a big race and Mahlermade who is on a win mark but may not want too much rain and upped to Class 3.

 

Each and every horse mentioned so far will make profit and win races at some point this season, it's one of those solid 3 mile Class 3 form races I'm sure you'll come back to time and time again, so use trackers if you have them on all of them.

 

So, to the selections in this uber-tricky race and I think FITNESS is the key with both.

 

JERSEY BEAN has had 2 good runs winning over a bit further last time. Is still below its win mark though and one who may well be put away for betetr spring ground after today. I think with fitness and stamina assured it's one they all have to beat to be honest. LARKBERROW LAD has less Chase experience than most but also race fit, Course and Distance hurdles form and has a very nice profile and way if jumped on Chase debut indicated it can make real progress in this sphere.

 

A fascinating race. 

 

TIP - JERSEY BEAN / Tracker - Larkberrow Lad (win saver/E/W banker - Fortescue)