It's hard to rule too much out here even after some deep analysis.

 

Ami Desbois may just need the run but is a good horse on it's day and the yard could not be in better form. Blacklion from another in form yard has had a run and will be a big danger in this but may just be susceptible to younger legs with less miles on the clock.Lake View Lad has an excellent record running fresh on seasonal debut, winning 3 times but as they get older they can just need the blow and we've factored that in.

 

Up Helly Aa KIng has fewer miles on the clock than most, has the benefit of a run and in good recent form too, I just have a concern about this extended 3 miles trip and the fact it wouldn't ideally want it softer than genuine soft Going. Tinkers Hill Tommy has also had a run and the yard of Rebecca Curtis have hit some form after apparently changing the feed they give their horses. another who has relatively few miles of the clock and sure to be a big danger. Dashing Perk is also unexposed for its age and anything Newland sends up in trip when ridden by Sam T-D has to be feared.

 

It's perfectly possible that all of those more unexposed types (Up Helly Aa KIng, Tinkers Hill Tommy; Dashing Perk) could be winning races in the next few months and I'll be tracking all of them.

 

Aso will have a legion of followers and is the one they may all have to catch, eased in Grade and likely to try to make all, I just think under 3 miles is the optimum trip though these days and if conditions deteriorate may just set the race up for more of a "slogger".

 

My idea of a winner would be either LATE ROMANTIC a Course and Distance winner who has had a run and won this off a similar preparation last year and runs off 4lbs less here or PRIME VENTURE who is probably being aimed at another tilt at The Welsh National where it finished 5th last year of regional equivalents in early January. He's had a run and the Yard is also in good nick.

 

At a bigger price a bit of shrapnel on Smooth Stepper might be a shrewd investment, a winner in heavy over course and distance off a mark of 136 in February last year, and one whose best runs have sometimes been on seasonal debut and certainly one to track forwards over these brush fences in winter ground.

 

 

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I have more than a hunch that this race could throw up a lot of subsequent winners and will track anything that catches the eye.

 

Enemy Coast Ahead; Homme Public, Gran Luna in particular deserve close inspection, any could pop up today but all look strong long term prospects.

 

At bigger Odds and may be more exposed if you wanted a bit of shrapnel on McGowans Pass who usually hits the ground running on seasonal debut and who will appreciate any rain for Jenny Candlish, and also Theme Tune who runs for JonJo and drops in trip with JJjunior in the saddle, and another who has run well fresh and on the ground, may give you a good run at nice e/w Odds.

 

Gobinator is short priced and will take all the beating but the each way value on the day may lie with BOLD PLAN for Evan Willians, ridden by Adam Wedge, the horse has had a run which it will come on a stack for on visual evidence is back Hurdling after some Novice Chasing, its won in this sphere off marks of 126 and 130 including over Course and Distance and a mark of 131 with that run in the bag looks very appealing.