A competitive race likely to be very attritional.

 

The top 2 in the market are in form and proven in Going and as with the race at Ayr we think a crafty reverse forecast on SHOT BOLI and BELLAMYS GREY may cover off each way singles on a pair at bigger odds.

 

Gala Vallis who has wins at just under 2 miles and also at 2 miles and 6 furlongs is very unexposed and  looks progressive, its upped again in trip and will be adanger if handling the Course and ground. Coolvalla has 3 miles P2P form but best so far under Rules is on Good to Soft over 2 miles 5 furlongs at Fontwell, a much tighter track than this stamina sapping tougher Course. Advantura is upped in trip by Phillip Hobbs on its second Handicap start and likely to be a danger given connections as are Araison and Earl Of Wisdom, both unexposed handicap debutants / upped in trip significantly for Jonjo and the Tizzards respectively. I'm not sure the Conditions suit that type of younger less exposed type though on balance.

 

The proven form in the conditions and off nice marks with far less to prove if more exposed leads me to AUENWIRBEL who is very consistent and as we have said before quite recently, a plodder who will get home in the conditions and who has placed the last 3 times off marks of 86 and 87 twice and back to 86 here. It's an "its what it says on the tin type" and deserves a win.

 

Less obvious at first glance and more speculative but with some intriguing back form is HATCHET JACK its back Hurdling but its best recent Chase run was here and its best Hurdle runs were all in Heavy Going off marks as high as 120. The Chase run place here not that far back proves an engine remains in place and off a mark of 82 back over Hurdles, if it gets in to a rhythm it can give us a nice enhanced place return.

 

TRACKER - Auenwirbel / Shrapnel - Hatchet Jack ( note reverse F/C suggestion on Shot Boli + Bellamys Grey)