An incredibly tough one to fathom with many in with chances. I'll keep selections on the minimal side as hard to be really confident given depth of the race.

 

At the top of the market SEASTON SPIRIT and SHANTY ALLEY are both bang in form, progressive, raised marks by the handicapper and probably this is as deep a race as they have yet been in. They deserve their places and their position in the market and are hard to take on, but this is a step up so I think a bit of value amongst those who are more regular at the grade. Ballycross is third favourite, more the Yard I think, it's got a solid chance but not a Track I'd associate with Henderson particularly.

 

Of the remainder dangers abound!

 

Tizzards run a pair and may just be emerging from a cold spell and more recently annual jabs. Darlac was 5th in this last year, up 11lbs for an Autumn CD win but not yet shown to be a real mud lover. Lamanver Pippin has been similarly hammered by the handicapper in the past. This is an ease in grade though and could spark an improved run but another whose best form is so far on no softer than soft.Nicholls runs Shantou Flyer, I'm not too keen on the pilot who seems to lack tactical awareness and having been runner up in the Ultima and then The Foxhunters at Cheltenham and now moved to Nicholls from a near neighbour to get a run for a "professional" trainer, I'd assess this as a nice pre Cheltenham pipe-opener.

 

Time To Get Up for Jonjo is full of promise but not sure this is a race and conditions to prove stamina at 3 miles, Springfield Fox was no doubt in too deep in the Welsh National, previously good progressive form but not sure about this increased mark but I really fear a bold effort. Commodore who was 4th in this for Venetia last year and Head To The Stars for Henry Daly, a Course winner who has had a "wind operation" and may improve for it, are very solid and live dangers and narrowly left out.

 

I kept coming back though to THE KINGS WRIT - runner up last year, runner up in a race here last time beaten only by Dawson City who we tipped at nice odds on the day, it is top weight, which is really my only niggle but a good record carrying weight and the one I'm certainly most confident about in terms of winning, and a shade over-priced I think because of the form of those at the head of the market who are progressive.

 

If there is a dark horse I'd be keen to have a smaller nibble on it's EDEN DES HOUX for the Pipe yard who'll have had one ready for this race near to home base. Won a 3 mile P2P in heavy, had a wind op since it's last run and very much one to note today and for the future as a potentially nice staying Chaser IF they can get the wind right!