York 4.10
The Advisor - York 4.10 Handicap 6 furlongs - 19 run
A typically competitive York Sprint Handicap where it's hard to rule anything out.
The draw is always a bit of an unknown here, recent logic on Good or Good to Firm Going suggests that being on either flank is a benefit and that having pace on the flank is an important factor too. For betting purposes it can be sensible to pick one on either side. It's a track that suits those with proven form.
Looking at those drawn low in my short list of 8 of the 19 runners is Athollblair boy in Stall 2, Broken Spear in Stall 4, Firmdecisions in Stall 5, Royal Prospect in Stall 7, DARK SHOT in Stall 8, and Triggered in Stall 9.
Of those drawn higher I was most interested in North Wind in Stall 13 and MUSCIKA in Stall 19.
Let's work through those horses.
Athlooblair Boy needs a strong pace to work off and will come late. It's well handicapped and one I will have a small side stake on with the generous enhanced place Odds on offer. Broken Spear has Course form, ran only 3 days ago and one may be better suited to shorter. He can be a pace angle for those drawn on the far side of the Course. Firmdecisions drawn in 5 was a real eye catcher last time, running on late, too late but on ground too soft and is another I will have a small tracker stake on. Royal Prospect drawn in stall 7 has had a recent wind operation, could be a big danger IF that has worked, one I fear but I usually like to see evidence that a wind op has actually worked.Triggered comes here in good form and should make a bold bid down the centre of the Course.
Of those higher drawn North Wind is an ex O'Brien Irish horse now with David Barron and probably the least exposed in the field and could be an improver as the summer unfolds, one to track and watch after today.
My selections though are both horses that are somewhat tagged as "serial losers". It is true that both dont win often but both are slightly eased in usual Grade here, tend to run very consistently close to their marks in better races, invariably find a few well handicapped yet rarely run badly. Their consistency is their downfall in many ways, good honest horses. Both have better chances here than may be for some time and the only question in my mind is can they grasp the opportunity that has finally landed.
MUSCIKA will hope a high draw is a benefit. Fit and from an in form Yard, solid and off an interesting and good mark as we have said, eased definitely in terms of the usual quality of the competition and Tudhope and O'Meara will be after the coveted Top Trainer and Top Jockey Titles on off at York in season long Competitions.
DARK SHOT drawn in 8 has tactical options to stay centre and to gravitate to either wing. There are a few down low who will be coming late so Dark Shot may get first run on several of those. Has good Course form at shorter and this trip and a runner up here in a Class 2 handicap in May last year off a mark of 86...so 77 is very appealing!
For the Trackers we'll have 1/2 point e/w on Athollblair Boy and Firmdecisions.