Ayr 4.20
MICHAEL G - Ayr 4.20 Handicap - Class 6 - 14 run - Soft
I can't get over excited about the top of the market in the likely soft conditions.
I think there is real value to be had elsewhere. I fear the Goldie trained One Last Hug but that seems better at 5 furlongs so far, Wee Fat Mac ran on Saturday but would have a chance if reappearing and breaking better out of the Stalls, See My Baby Jive was a Course and Distance winner at the last meeting but a 3lbs Penalty and Stall 1 may be enough to stop a repeat. Wrecked It Ralph also ran well in the same race but as last week has got a low draw again today.
One for the TRACKER to keep an eye on at massive odds in late August and September is Burtonlodge Beauty, a filly whose best runs seem to be in that period of the year, we'll map that one in the coming weeks and hope to pounce at big odds.
Three stood out for me, one of which is mostly on price.
The main pair are GLOBAL HUMOUR who has Course and Distance wins off marks of 58 and 61. A mark of 63 looks competitive enough on favoured ground and proven stamina over slightly further, I don't think a draw in Stall 8 will stop it here. EARN YOUR STRIPES won this race last year on very different ground but seems very versatile from Good to Firm right through to Soft Going, It should get a nice pull from Stall 6 and use the proven stamina to range upsides in the closing stages and I can't separate it and GLOBAL HUMOUR.
One at a price from a Yard who can always deliver one at double figure odds here is GENEVIEVE who is a regular here, kind of due to "pop up" drawn 9, decent enough mark, likes and prefers soft and who just jumped off the page a little for me as one of the few likely at big e/w prices
Tips (1) Global Humour / (2) Earn Your Stripes (3) Genevieve