Cheltenham 1.10
MICHAEL G / The SPECULATOR-:
We have to start with 2 very confident Irish selections here from Michael, as we do with the Festival in March it's very important to use the Irish expertise that we have to point out what may be "dark horses" and we know how much the Irish love to come and raid winners here.
Whilst the likes of Prinze Zaltar and Takarengo have exposed marks in Ireland and even more exposed marks here and Arabian King is a less exposed type who could run well, Micheal is VERY keen on the chances of both FATHOM TWO a typically progressive Gavin Cromwell type who will have been prepared and laid out for this rate without a shadow of doubt and GENTLE AND KIND an equally progressive and somewhat unexposed Henry De Bromhead horse, for whom Mike O'Connor has already experience of riding and another surely trained for this as an early season target race.
I looked at the best of the UK form and whilst fearing very much the chances of the in form White Rhino and Pinnacle Peak who arrive in great form but possibly now exposed handicap mark wise by their successes, there were a few to note for the future and a few who I think are more likely to challenge the pair of Irish hot-pots.
Skytastic was an excellent prospect 2 years ago and has moved to Ben Pauling and could be a real danger IF rediscovering that form,I've a slight stamina concern but a genuine fear of Uncle Burt for the Twiston-Davies yard, American Sniper is another unexposed sort for a dangerous yard as is Doughmore Bay who I've added to the TRACKER today along with Hakuri Golf who makes handicap debut off some very consistent Novice form.
I'm most sweet though for the UK teams on PARICOLOUR for the Pipe yard, it's had a quiet Flat prep after a wind operation and could be very well handicapped here on early season form last year and some for the season before that when winning and being a runner up over an extended 2 miles 7 furlongs off marks of 120 and 122. Clearly the wind issues saw some regression last season after the bright start but IF the horse is anything like back to early season form last year a mark of 115 with an 8lbs Claim really did jump off the page at me!. KNOCKANORE would be my other main selection, a quirky type who is finally clicking for a progressive Yard and he looks a very solid each way bet to enhanced places.
If you take away the Irish tips I would have had a couple of other "shrapnel tips" but with those 4 selections I think we have enough so I'll personally have a quid e/w on a couple at BIG odds who I think could both outrun those odds. WHATSUPWITHYOU @ 20/1 has some good solid Cheltenham form especially on the New Course, it has had 2 runs so will arrive properly race fit and the type to run on up the hill into an enhanced place. At the big price end of the market we have SON OF THE SOMME @ 40/1 who has interestingly WON on its 3rd race in 2021 and 2022 progressing from a mark of 99 to 111 and now off a mark of 117 with a 3lbs Claimer. The trip and Going are ideal, the statistical evidence is compelling and whilst I've called Brian Ellison a lot of names over the years, he can undoubtedly place and prepare a handicap blot!. At the price, let's have a bash.
MG - Tips (1) Fathom Two / (2) Gentle And Kind
SPECULATOR Tips (3s) Paricolour / (4s) Knockanore - see notes re others