Cheltenham 1.10 Amateur Jockey Handicap Chase - 3 miles 1 furlong - 20 run - Soft

 

An excellent and informative weather update at 7.30am confirmed 5mm of rain, changed to Soft Going and may be a bit more before the meeting starts, if only ALL Courses were this transparent!

 

At the head of the market now is Strictlydancer, I was VERY keen on Tea Clipper who is now a non runner, Strictlydancer won this in 2021 off 110 and now runs off 121 and may be not ideally suited to soft, for me it's one you can put in the satchel as a small win-saver but NOT a tip from me as I have reservations in soft Going. Mole Court arrives on a 5 timer with wins from marks of 92 to 115, upped to 120 and another who would not ideally want it too soft. Those pair will be extremely dangerous rivals to all including the selections, so I will personally cover them off with a small reverse f/cast bet.

 

Read To Return is upped in Class by the always dangerous Tony Martin and I'll take michaels judgement on this one that it may be over-backed. Manofthepeople is race fit, gets the trip but not really well handicapped and another who may not have wanted the rain. Cap Du Nord is back to its last winning mark, has needed 2 poor runs so far and should be fit enough now but a horse I now think is better right handed and another for whom the rain won't be overly welcomed. Undersupervision is a very sketchy jumper BUT has an engine and is not overlooked lightly at all if getting a clear round. At big Odds Michael has noted that Galon De Vauzelle is the type of stamina laden mud lover who could plug on and on in to an enhanced place - a typical £1 e/w type.

 

That leaves me with 4 of the 20 to note and Michael is VERY KEEN on one Irish Raider.

 

In order of overall preference, I', really sweet on WAYFINDER, 3rd on seasonal debut and the benefit of that run cannot be underestimated, a welcome return to form for Rebecca Curtis, still on a very nice mark and soft Going is ideal. BRAMPTON BELLE is the Irish Nap of the day from Michael, it's in the TRACKER already and Henry De Bromhead has got a run in to the horse, long looked ideally suited by an extended 3 miles and any rain will be more than welcomed. WICK GREEN was impressive over course and distance last time for Ben Pauling, runs off a nice mark, has been kept to Good ground BUT if you look back far enough it has 3 mile P2P winning form in Heavy, so I don't see the ground as an excuse. BLAME THE GAME is definitely worth some shrapnel, a proven stayer, handles soft and really did need seasonald debut, I've a niggle it may still need this BUT the price tempts me in. Another i think worth a shrapnel bet is CHAMBARD , definitely better here than anywhere else, has a nice chance off this mark and conditions suit, my only concern is the very mixed messages about the horse fresh, 1st on 2021 seasonal debut but PU last year, so that just tempers enthusiasm.

 

Tips RT (1) Wayfinder / (3) Wick Green / (4s) Blame The Game / (5s - if you wish to enhanced places) - Chambard 

Tip MG (2) Brampton Belle

Cheltenham 2.55 Handicap Hurdle - Class 2 - 3 miles - 15 run - Soft

 

The likes of polish who is uber consistent but in deeper here can't be discounted and along with Come on Teddy who may need the run, Shan Blue who may also need the spin, Chantry House another who will likely need the run and a confidence boost after a crashing fall over fences the last time we saw it and The Newest One who also may need the run, are types that COULD pop up but likely here for a confidence and fitness boosting pipeopener.

 

Having weeded out others who I don't think are quite good enough and in collaboration with Derek (The Advisor) we believe the value lies with the following.

 

We both agree that PLACENET is the one they very much all have to beat and it has been bet accordingly so a unanimous 2 point win bet. I'm then very keen on the chances of BUDDY ONE and NOBLE BIRTH , BUDDY ONE has some excellent Course form and will definitely be primed. NOBLE BIRTH is race fit and ready to go and carries some real stable confidence, and for some shrapnel from me WALKING ON GLASS a proven mud loving stayer just got the nod over Real Steel who has it's first hurdle run since 2018 but for whom connections are I'm told quietly confident. I'll have a £1 saver on that. 

 

The other one The Advisor really liked(s) id JUDICIAL LAW but having reconvened in the past hour we both feel that the rain is a big negative for this one.

 

Tips (1) Placenet / (2) Buddy One / (3) Noble Birth / (4s) Walking On Glass (5s if you want - Real Steel)