MICHAEL - Thurles 4.15 Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 6 furlongs - 18 run - Heavy

 

I don't think this race is particularly deep and with reserves has enhanced places on offer.

 

Toor Moon has an obvious chance if repeating its last run and is win saver material if you like that backstop. I've trip and Going concerns at the price about Lilys Choice, Colline Fleurie has yet to translate P2P promise to Rules so best watched for now. Glorious Singer and Wanchu Bach who are reserves would both have better chances than over 50% of the remainder of the field IF getting a run. At big odds I will have £1 each way on NAVY WAVES who has a Course win over 2 miles in a Maiden Hurdle and whose mark looks too high as a result but who may fire back here and one to TRACK longer term.

 

I was very confident about the experience of Aodhan May on Sunday and a very similar horse in terms of profiel is SEANGOELL it's needed 2 runs so far after a slow start to the season but was an impressive runner up of 16 runners on its 3rd run last season off a mark of 93 and is VERY appealing here off a mark of 84 with a good 7 lbs Claimer. It just feels like a winnable race on the right day for me.

 

I also think there is each way value in ANOTHER NIGHTMARE who has a win over 3 miles off a mark of 91, it fell heavily in the race after that and needed a confidence booster in a  quiet run last time but in a field lacking great depth is surely good enough to run a place at least off a mark of 95 with a 7lbs Claim. At bigger odds, I like WINTER CARNIVAL who has a decent 3 mile P2P record but not yet fired under Rules but this handicap mark looks good on some collateral P2P form and one who could improve here today.

 

(1) Seangoell / (2s) Another NIghtmare / (3s) Winter Carnival (see notes re Navy Waves)