A decent Card for once at Ascot, the Going looked genuinely soft yesterday, there has been some rain since and the Going will be more cut up today and a few may take a wide route down into and through Swinley Bottom as we saw yesterday. The closing hill is a genuine test of stamina provided horses don't get too detached coming into the home turn. One other aspect I always consider here is the lack of a rail to run against sometimes in Hurdle races, horses can wander in front so can suit closers and hold up horses.

 

 

Not an obvious race on the day but the need for assured stamina makes it an interesting conundrum.

 

One to not at a very big price is HATCHET JACK who was once a consistent and confident 120 rated horse in this type of race in soft and muddy conditions. Has had best part of 3 years and 2 full seasons off after a tendon issue and has had 3 runs since returning. Nothing to really write home about, but still showed some indications of old form and off this mark if clicking could easily outrun huge Odds....a bit of shrapnel may be to buy a few mince pies...

 

My main selections are HUNTSMANS JOG who looks the one to beat here in terms of form and stamina. Won off 114 and 116 in similar conditions and the 6 lb penalty is more than offset by jocking Brennan or another full time jockey off and putting up a decent 7lbs Claimer in Liam Harrison. Fergal will want a nice pre-Christmas Saturday win and hard to see this one not being right in the thick of it and an each way shot to nothing at the price.

 

I'll also have a Tracker bet on MORNING SPIRIT from O'Neill yard who showed it has some stamina and progression at the trip last time out, has form over shorter on Heavy and could be a progressive and well handicapped type now they have discovered right trip. Ran on well enough right handed up the hill last time at Kempton to suggest no excuses here.

 

 

A very tight and competitive Chase and I narrowed the 12 down to a short list of 5 most likely.

 

Enrichissant is worth a close look and could be running in to form and full fitness after 3 runs, the only niggle for me is the handicap mark but one I fear most outside the selections. Saint De Vassey has scope and could run a big race here and if there is one more exposed but likely to run its race in the conditions it's Drumcliff, who has Course and Distance winning form, an interesting jockey booking that looks a bit of a plan, but a horse who may just need absolutely everything to fall in to place. A win would be no surprise but I calculate 2 better options for me here.

 

SAINT SONNET has struggled so far this season but excuses in both runs in much deeper field than this. This track and right handed should suit it better, the Trainer is the best there is (PFN) and the stable are very bullish about the long term prospects for the horse. I'll tip it with confidence and think that BENNYS KING is the most likely to follow it home up the hill.

 

 

 

This could turn out to be a real stamina test and clearly the one they all have to beat is THE CONDITIONAL. If this was a race left handed I think it would be 6/4 in this field, it can clout one but 3/1 looks actually very good value to me and a win saver at those Odds is the suggestion.

 

A number look to ave solid place claims at least , Regal Encore has done it a number of times here but now runs off pretty much a career high mark at 12 rising 13, anything that beats it though will go very close. Flying Angel has jumped round Aintree at 2 miles 5 furlongs twice and was 5th in the 2019 Ultima Chase, so solid dependable jumper, no Going issues but this hill at 3 miles would be a worry for me in a slog to the line. Enfant Roi could be anything and the darkest horse in the race but I liked the way QUARENTA ran up the hill here last time, winning cosily on seasonal debut, (one of those we said we really fancied and would tip next time doh!), well this is next time and I think if it can have benefitted for that run can lead the rest home behind The Conditional. I can't resist a small flutter on BEWARE THE BEAR a great favourite of ours that we have tended to pick on the right day, the Going is my only niggle but class should take it a long way and if there are any chinks in the armour of The Conditional, one to be on.