Ian - Placespotter - Cheltenham

 

A dry and clear day and they are on The New Course (the outer track) this weekend. Its forecast Good to Soft but having driven down the M5 on Tuesday afternoon in an absolute deluge between Tewkesbury and Gloucester it's possible the ground may ride slightly softer than forecast albeit new and pretty fresh ground on The New Course.

 

10 runners here and the more I looked at it the more upside down the market felt to my analytical eye - we shall see??..

 

Enrilo is the favourite for PFN, who can ever back against him, if you want a win saver, feel free, bt so far this horse has been all "massive potential" largely unfulfilled. He could easily click and run up a sequence but at the price I think no more than a saver bet at your discretion.

 

Commodore has been off for 309 days so looks too short in the market for me, we know what Venetia can do but I'm also wary that the horse has pulled up and unseated on its only 2 runs at the Course. Mister H=Fogpatches will be well back purely because it's an Irish horse from a punting yard, he has decent form and ticks all the right boxes but the British handicapper has taken no chances and we have no idea how the horse will adapt to either the travel of the Course, I'm happy to take it on for those reasons.

 

Hurricane Harvey has had a couple of runs, looks a solid type but not exactly jumping out as a winner in waiting, Quarenta is a bigger danger despite coming off a break of 201 days, it can be one best caught fresh as a win in November last year off a break of 255 days at Newbury showed, I'm not sure the hill here though will play to his strengths but one i definitely fear nonetheless. Rocco is up 5lbs for a stella career best win at Wincanton last time and NT-D is always to be feared here but I still can't reconcile that run to the prior form of the horse and will take it on with a view that I want to be sure it wasn't a flash in the pan one off type performance. Santini has been off for 266 days and never fired last season after being runner up in the 2020 Gold Cup. It wouldn't be the first and won't be the last horse completely ruined by that race and the move to Polly Gundry is interesting. Hopefully it can regain that kind of form in less intense surroundings.

 

I was left with and kept coming back to Fagan, Potters Legend and Court Master, very much against the sentiments of the market.

 

We've tipped Court Master on both runs this season, clearly a poorly horse when pulling up at Chepstow on seasonal debut and no surprise it had a wind op straight after, we stuck with it when it ran an absolute stormer last time 25>18/1 SP at Newbury. It steps up in trip and that's the only query for me, although it did win a 3 mile P2P beating a decent yardstick in Jarveys Plate as a youngster so this new trip may be ideal. If they can switch it off and the wind is still fine then it can easily outrun odds here.

 

Fagan was runner up on seasonal debut, has good Cheltenham form and I cant find any reason why it won't run a big race here and Potters Legend who was runner up in this race off a mark of 135 last year has also had a run, looking back at that it ran very well for a long way, just blew in the final furlong or so and off a mark of 133 should be spot on again for this race.

 

TRACKER - Fagan (definite shrapnel 1/4 point e/w on Potters Legend and Court Master and I'm going to have a very speculative Tricast Perm)

 

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Another race where I think there is real value at big prices.

 

The top pair do look stronger though and I will have a bet on ONAGATHERINGSTORM to get the better of Sporting John today on more favourable terms than when the pair met last time. 

 

Agrapart will be a danger and return to some sort of form with proven Course and Distance form and a better run is anticipated. Botox Has is interesting for Gary Moore but steps markedly up in trip although another with some Course form, I can't be having Ernesto nor Ferobin on what we have seen before in terms of form but Kansas City Chief would have realistic place chances on Cheltenham form although so far seems best on The OLd Course which does have very different characteristics.

 

Saint Dalina is definitely one to track going forwards and looks likely to pick up a nice race somewhere along the way this season, will probably need this after 265 days off and watch especially if it returns to Uttoxeter next time out!!. The Wrekin is another to track onwards and one i like a lot, I would not rule him out of this by any means but he's going around 5 furlongs further than he has been before and I'll watch this one with interest as I have a hunch they have a 3 mile race in mind and just want to see exactly what scope the horse has by running over a bit further up a challenging hill.

 

The pair I can't leave out of a small investment are ASK DILLON, very disappointing when tipped last time but a Course and Distance winner on this New Course off a mark of 144 and may be the Newbury run was still needed, I'm happy to take a chance off a mark of 142 and similarly SHANNON BRIDGE for the Skeltons who owe us a bit of luck after yesterday. Very much out of form so far but no fitness excuses now and with good placed form at this trip, the step back to 3 miles might just trigger some improvement. It's interesting they still haven't reached for any headgear that has worked before so please TRACK this horse in your trackers with a note to especially watch for some form of aids going back on as I'm convinced it will pop up somewhere at big odds before too long!