I was gutted when this race was abandoned due to fog last Sunday, an extra runner and a few changes to the Entries but very similar race to the original. The Going will be dead Heavy Going, a bit of light rain but I can't and won't use ground changes as any excuse. I was confident in my analysis and logic last time and I am again today.

 

 

The start point is the reminder that for the first time this season they are using The New Course. It's the outer of the 2 Courses, a far more galloping track that places a bigger onus on stamina. The other imponderable today will be the Going. They are due about 6mm of rain on Good to Soft Going BUT this will be completely fresh Going so it may not be as significant as it looks. That's why we will be a bit circumspect today on a below par Card. By this time though the Ground will have been opened up and although the rain should have passed, may be toughest conditions of the day.

 

A competitive field and a bit of a case of those seeking to retain or regain former glories, a few with scope of promise and a few who lurk dangerously but not obviously in terms of value.

 

At the head of the market On The Blind Side for Henderson looks a bit too short to me. Two wins and clearly handles the "Old Course" here but running style suggests to me it may not be as comfortable on a more galloping track A 5lb penalty, the price and the fact I think all the stable runners get over-backed here at this meeting put me off. Come On Teddy is also a strongly backed horse, a progressive one but the trip, the Going, the surroundings and the handicap mark, don't really entice me in. If they prevail, I'll take it on the chin.

 

UknowhatImeanarry is a legend of a racehorse. Brave, still very capable, I'll cheer it home if it wins even if it beats me, it's that kind of rare horse, but in terms of an investmnt, not for me today. No one will appreciate a win more though for sure. Agrapart is another with good form here in the past, seems to have been picked up by a bit of early shrewd money, but as always with these bigger meetings the sheep can then follow it off the cliff and then proclaim a "boom". I can understand the logic of the shrewd money, but think value v probability is long gone. One that would not surprise me but not value for me. Mohayed is intriguing won the County Hurdle back in the day off 139, won another bit race at Ascot off 145 on soft but at pretty much the bare 2 miles. It ran well enough at Aintree last time when runner up to "Arry" to suggest it can get an easy 3 miles on a flat track off a fair pace. This however is The New Course at Cheltenham, up that hill and if it obliged here, I think they should be knighting Sir Dan Skelton on the spot. Boyhood is the last of those who could win or pop up with a nice place on old form, but another I just can't fancy today.

 

I'm left with four that really interested me as value and on bits of form. 

 

Cotswold Dancer for the Hobbs yard is a horse I'm tracking closely but more for the Spring and better Spring ground. It's best on Good or Good to Soft and if it got those here in March off this mark I'd be very interested. I think this is a bit of a sighter but I don't think they'd want to risk the mark or bottoming the horse out today. DEFINITELY one for your Festival Handicap Trackers.

 

Vive Le Roi, for a canny (that's a polite version of the word I'm thinking of in terms of placing horses to win but stopping them when he doesn't want them to win) yard intrigues me. It's on a nice mark and I've a feeling is going to run a BIG race. Very much my 3rd rated and I will have a small e/w dabble (not a tip nor tracker) just to scratch my cynical itch!

 

I can't leave last years winner GOODBYE DANCER out of calculations or tips. It looks out of form, certainly the Yard have continued to thrive, but Fergal has contrived to get the horse back here off a mark just 1lb more than last season when it rocked up fresh and won. Off that mark and with the CD cv it should deliver its best run of the season and if it does, looks excellent each way value.

 

At big Odds the Pipe second string jumped off the page a bit at me once I checked some well hidden form. BROUGHTONS ADMIRAL gets Tommy Scu up, a big asset for a start as we have seen to our benefit a few times lately how the "metronome" as I call him can get a horse rolling off the front and basically run them all to sleep. This horse steps up in Class but off a nice handicap mark. Tommy Scu doing 10 stones - should flash like a belisha beacon...runs actually off a mark 1 lb wrong but that's negligible. A runner up on this New Course off a mark of 120 on Good Going, won at Hereford in deep mud off a mark of 121, quietly entered here off a mark of 125. They must fancy a dart and I fancy being on for that dart.

TIP - Goodbye Dancer - TRACKER - Broughtons Admiral (small stake if you want it on Vive Le Roi)