No rain really for the next 3 days, we believe Good to Soft to be an accurate description and no excuses really for anything in terms of the ground.

 

Let's look at the Irish challengers of which there are 7 at the time of writing and some we know plenty about.

 

Brazos would seem to be better suited to 3 miles, Ellat is fit from the Flat but really unproven over anything more than 2 miles, BALLYADAM DESTINY won for us last time, advised at 40/1 and returning 20/1 SP, it's upped 14lbs by the UK assessor by that but I don't think that totally rules it out as we have to compare it not like for like with all the horses here just the Irish ones. DONT DOUBT ME was also a winner last time out at Gowran Park and is upped by 16lbs for that effort, ALVARO is doubly declared today and tomorrow and it has solid Irish form placing regularly off marks from 111 to 114 and gets a more lenient raise of 5lbs to a mark of 119. Sweet Will for Gavin Cromwell has wins in Ireland ranging from 83 to 95 as recently as Tuesday but gets lumbered with a mark of 114 here. ENKI FLACKE runs for Elliott and has form figures of 1-1-1 at Perth off a mark of 121, as that form is UK based form it gets in off what seems to be an incredibly lenient mark of 122 (go figure that?)

 

One other to note would be OSCAR THYME who runs for Fergal O'Brien off a 517 day break having moved from Gavin Cromwell in Ireland, the fact it runs off it's IRISH mark of around 120 could be significant IF it is fully tuned up and that makes it very interesting.

 

I can't NOT have an investment in ENKI FLACKE and would suggest a small bet on OSCAR THYME and I'll have a £1 e/w fun bet on Ballyadam Destiny

 

Our Northern expert has cast his eye over the UK challengers-:

 

Hurricane Harvey has become pretty disappointing but could revive, Hardy Boy has won moderate handicaps off a mark of 99, needed seasonal debut and I'm not sure a mark of 108 is competitive, stablemate Fine Casting too has won for Ben Pauling and runs at Ffos Llas and Newbury do stack up well, off a mark of 119 it should be competitive but I think it may come on for the run based on past evidence. Astigar off a 606 day break for David Pipe, would have a similar chance to Oscar Thyme I thin as it's all about fitness.

 

The pair who really caught my eye are NIETZSHE and HECTOR JAVILEX.

 

The former is the classic marmite horse, as is the tRainer but it's undeniably well handicapped back over Hurdles and has Course winning hurdle form in the dim and distant past, it's race fit from the Flat and proven jumps form over further, it's either very craftily placed or here for a fitness run for the winter campaign, at the price I'll take a poke. Hector Javilex is a 3 mile P2P recruit so has proven stamina, its won a couple of small Novice Hurdles, the Handicap debut opening mark of 123 looks OK and I like the way Lily pinchin approaches every ride, often prominently and if she can get this one in to a nice rhythm and enjoying itself it could take a fair amount of pegging back from the front.

 

 

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A very difficult puzzle that we narrowed down to around 7 horses

 

Contrapposoto may be the best of those at very big odds with a couple of decent runner up runs off an Irish mark of 98 but is upped to 108 here. Diamondinthemud has stamina for further but could get run off its feet early and is 12lbs higher than he'd be in Ireland, Astrophysicist is left on a similar mark to what he'd be on in Ireland but has yet to show Flat form over the jumps, GREAT REALISATION did run very well at Ascot last year on a trip over from Ireland where it's form is moderate and is only 4 lbs higher than that Ascot run from what looks a solid bit of UK form.Explosive Boy carries the usual Tony Martin health warning in terms of being over-bet probably, Hey Johnny is upped 17lbs on Irish form. 

 

I think that GREAT REALISATION is the value based on the handicap mark that we can most easily corroborate and have a sneaky feeling that Contrapposto can outrun big odds. Once again Fergal runs an ex Irish horse I know a bit about and a small bet on EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN wouldn't be a crazy move.

 

Of the UK contingent The Advisor has the following thoughts-:

 

Alioski is over-priced I think as he won a hurdle race, is fit from the Flat and looks to be on a nice mark of 100, Pepe Le Moko has shown some promise for Jane Williams and is upped in Class and one I will track forwards after today. Mothill for Neil Mulholland is on a treble with a pair of wins off 113 and is upped to 117 , I'm not convinced it'll appreciate the hurly burly of this race though.  RATHMACKNEE has been given a lot of time and patience by Henderson and its interesting they pitch up here, I'm willing to invest that an opening mark of 124 is not excessive and the price seems fair.

 

Alto Alto and Master Dancer hold solid claims and Alto Alto seems the one to beat but I think there are a couple of UK contenders who are better priced.

 

GALAHAD THREPWOOD showed promise over Course and Distance last time and could be a decent recruit to Hurdles, I'd see it as an Autumn and Spring horse on this type og Going and I'm sure it'll be here to win and PLATINUMCARD for David Pipe is an ex Gordon Elliott horse whose best Irish form is a runner up effort at Galway off a mark of 108 but who also won a small race at Ayr off 104 and I'm not put off by a mark of 115 here with Tommy Scu up.

 

TIP - Rathmacknee / Trackers - Galahad Threpwood + Platinumcard + Great Realisation  (see notes re Contrapposto + Evenwood Sonofagun)