CHEPSTOW 2.25 2 miles 7 1/2 furlongs - Novice Handicap Chase (16 run) Heavy

 

A few come from P2P background and finally get the trip and fences (as opposed to Hurdles) to attack. 

 

At the top end of the market Ector from the Greatrex yard will be a big danger following a runner up effort at Ffos Llas last time. The one who stands out though in terms of proven form at th trip, in the Going and also a few runs over Chase Fences is THE MANUSCRIPT. Won a Handicap Hurdle at Market Rasen at this trip in soft and a Novice Handicap Chase at Warwick (a Course which takes some jumping) and was a runner up here, proving it can handle the track here, It beat a horse called Tarundy who reopposes here yet gets an extra 2lbs for beating it 11 lengths and I think the only niggling doubt is the form of the Trainer and the propensity of the Yard to let you down when you think a big run is expected. Can't ignore all of the form evidence though.

 

Of the remainder Captains Run has a P2P background and has shown glimmers of potential, Sign Of War from the Evan Williams yard also showed a bit of form last time but not 100% sure about this trip for that one.

 

That leave a couple who are at bigger odds who should be worth tracking on from today and who may be worth a small investment. As we have a quiet week lets have a Tracker bet on both. BILL AND BARN is a 3 miles P2P winner when with Jack Barber, then moved as many of those types do to Paul Nicholls and has a Hurdles win here at this trip. Clearly one of the lesser lights has moved to Seamus Mullins and no real form since then. However, in race notes when with Nicholls they explained the improvement in form when winning by describing "a big burly horse who needed a few runs to get fit and heavy Going and a trip" (or words to that effect). Well, it gets that today and with the stamina and Course ability clearly evident is worth a small poke.

 

The other one is LADY KINGSMILL another with some nice P2P runs in similar conditions who could be a dark horse to follow. Not the quantifible form Bill and Barn has but worth a small interest.

 

The other race we looked at was the Handicap Hurdle at 4.00 but very hard to decide between OXWICH BAY and KAUTO THE KING in that one and at the likely odds not much each way value although a crafty reverse forecast might be a fun bet.