Chepstow 3.20

Good Morning

Chepstow 3.20 10 Wood Yer @ 12/1 (generally) + 11 Astigos @ 20/1 (generally)

(back both 1/2 point each way + note Tricast Perm suggestion)

A slog in the mud over 3 miles Class 4. Greyed A goes for a hat trick but this is a bigger field' deeper mud and

a lot different to Fontwell and he has a significant penalty too, he may be a horse on the "up" but in my eyes vulnerable today. Back To

The Thatch is an improving Novice, the trip should be OK, can handle soft, but I'm not sure a Novice is what I want in these conditions

at this price, most likely of any of them to run away with it, but I think experience will be the biggest equine asset here. Alberobello sets

a bit of history as one of the first horses who "wind op" is declared, we know that op took place on 31st October; I know from feedback

about a horse we have a share in (Versifier) who has also had a wind op that the recovery period is about 4-6 weeks but then you have

to build up fitness again, I'm not sure this horse needs a slog in the mud today, so we shall watch with great interest.

Now on to my shortlist PADDY THE OSCAR has been a star for us this season, won here for us at 10/1 when advised at 16/1 and

then a runner up for us at Exeter when we willed it to lose as we also tipped Sonofking at 22.1 (SP) in the same race; didn't run so

well at Hereford when another of our favourites TB BrokeHer won and although running better last time out, in what looks a hot race

given results this week; I just think that at 15 now and with plenty of early pace, the likes of Alberobello; Greyed A and Umberto D;

they may just all cut each others throats a bit pace wise. Hard for me to leave out PTO but will be in the Tricast Perm suggestion.

UMBERTO DOLIVATE is one who has let us down too many times since winning at Exeter last season; is finally down below that win

mark and must fire soon; has won on Heavy but may be better on soft and he is feared but just left out of calculations. The other to

be very closely analysed and much feared is CATCHING ON; a mark of 110 - 7 lbs Claim from an excellent young lad "a chip off

the old block" if ever I've seen one; gives real hope; won at Warwick over this trip in heavy Going and tongue tie that has been used

on best runs is again enlisted, I really fancy a massive run today and will have a few bob on and include in Tricast Perm.

My chosen pair though are the 2 bottom weights, WOOD YER steps back a little in trip; Course and Distance winner in heavy

in 2016; usually needs 3-4 runs to get to best performance level and has had them, won that race off a mark of 114; so 106

here less an excellent Claimers 3lbs indicates, it should be mega competitive and as a hold up horse with stamina for further

can really benefit if ridden sensibly and not attacking the early pace. My second pick was a real "toss up" between CATCHING

ON and ASTIGOS. Astigos is out of the handicap but runs off feather weight. Is not well handicapped but a consistent plodder;

finished behind PTO last time staying on and I think can benefit attacking late off that likely decent pace here MOST NOTABLE

is the horse Astigos passed in the late run last time, a horse called Horatio Hornblower; he franked the form and some with a

win at Newbury on Wednesday off a mark of 117!. My final decision was based really on a horse "in form" Astigos running off

an OK mark that has been franked v an horse "out of form" Catching On, who you are hoping will run up to a decent mark. It's

fine margins and a really tight call but ASTIGOS just gets the nod....

So 1/2 point each way on WOOD YER and ASTIGOS and include Catching On (with a bit of e/w shrapnel if you wish) and the

redoubtable PADDY THE OSCAR in the Tricast Perm where you can perm 3 out of 4 for units from a total stake of £2.00 upwards;

I'd look at a £2-3 total stake; small unit and pick the unit accordingly to match what total stake you want to have a bit of fun with.