CLONMEL 2.50 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles (12 run) Yielding to Soft...

 

A staggering number of last time out winners in here and I want to take a few of them on as upped markedly by the handicapper.

 

Let's start with those last time out winners at the head of the market.

 

Sweet Sting has won it's last 2 races and in so doing mark has gone from 102 to 105 to 119 today, all my logic and experience tells me that's a step too far on form and visual evidence. Eimear won over Course and Distance last time and gets a 13 lbs hike, it ran and won well, but I don't see anything in past form to suggest it was anything but a well handicapped horse that day, and off best part of a stone more, I would be shocked if it won again on past evidence. Hopefully is harder to quantify from the Mullins yard, up 8lbs for a nice win but another for whom that was a well handicapped horse winning in turn. I'd also have reservations on what we;ve seen about the step up in trip.

 

Reuben James also won last time out over Fences, runs off a lower hurdles mark but not one I'd see as an obvious Code switcher so I fear him but will pass him over. Yaiza won last time out, but is up in trip here and has gone from 99 to 106 and 109 so another who may now be in the grip of the handicapper.

 

Of the remainder, eyes are drawn to the Elliott runner Insane Bolt but I'm not totally convinced that 3 miles is the trip for this ex Flat horse. Lee Valley Legacy won twice for me off lower marks and still looks on the high side off a mark over 100, it won off 83 and 90 on soft/heavy Going last season and definitely one I will be very interested in once that mark comes below the mid 90's so one for your Trackers.

 

I am left with a pair who are race fit, who should still have some improvement in them who get probably optimum tips and conditions at nice prices. Everything poits to them being well handicapped and over priced, not surprising if you just look at recent win form of so many others.

 

FIT TO BE TIED should come on for a promising seasonal debut is 3 lbs above last win mark but capable I think of bridging that gap and more likely to do so than some of those clobbered by the handicapper. ASK HEATHER is a Course and Distance winner , runner up of a mark of 109 last time and will be better for the run and runs off a mark of 112 with a 5lbs claimer.

 

It's an intriguing race, the sort I love to pit my brain against...

 

If Newton Abbot is ON , Robin thought the chances of Crossley Tender and Clondaw Rigger in the 3.58 were boosted by Heavy ground and recent form, and might be worth a small investment whilst he thinks that Samsons Reach @ 20/1, who travels a long way, has some hidden old form on this type of going a few years back that may bring race fitness in to play in the 1.58 race.