FFOS LLAS - 1.15 OLD SALT 14/1 2.20 BINGO D'OLIVATE@ 11/2 (Corals) 3.20 FINISH THE STORY 8/1 - 50p each way Patent costs you £7.00
Good Morning
It was nice to get back in tot he winners enclosure yesterday after 3 quiet days, even when you know that
it is not realistically possible to tip winners every day, the longer you go without one, the more the confidence
starts to evaporate a little and we had started a bit of a trend of the next worst thing to man flu "fourthitis".
However, FLEMI TWO TOES (not Shoes as I had mistakenly said) justified the confidence that we had in
his handicap mark and was a nice winner at 9/1, advised at 12/1. When I watched the race back last night;
two things struck me (a) how many times do you see a horse go off at one price 10/1 when the tapes went up
and get returned lower e.g 9/1; and (b) its really great when after the race the so-called experts who have
never discussed the race suddenly almost repeat word for word what we had put hours earlier about "his
handicap mark is lower than a win last Boxing Day"; maybe we should write their scripts before the race
not after!. I have put the young trainer in the tracker, it was her first win but another of hers Diego Suarez,
had run well for us on Thursday at a big price.
Finish The Story finished fourth earlier, and I will be watching his next entry with great interest; especially
if it comes at Wetherby on Boxing Day, where he would be worth a real punt!; sadly Saroque ran like
many from his yard do, inexplicably poorly, on that basis, another one to watch out for next time!!!!!
----
On to today and pretty dire fare to be honest, I/we can't find anything of note at all at Plumpton
or Wolverhampton, and the racing at Ffos Llas is not great, the Tipsters drew a blank too so I
have had a gander at the Card and come up with a nice each way Patent for you - 3 horses
back as each way singles; each way doubles; and an each way treble for a bit of fun and a 50p
each way stake costs you £7.00; here are my thoughts.
1.15 - main market interest is in Joueue Bresilien and Positively Dylan; who have corroborative
form with the likes of Ballyandy and Diego Du Charmil, but both those pieces of form are
tenuous at best. The Henderson horse Jameson may struggle on this ground so the formline
I'm interested in is the one from Ludlow with Old Salt and Crievehill. OLD SALT beat Crievehill
that day but the market seems to really fancy Crievehill. I think OLD SALT though is over-priced
at 14/1 and offers value with proven fitness and a bit more stamina than Crievehill.
2.20 If Beallandendall was still trained by Matt Shepherd I would be diving in at 10/1; I know
nothing really about its owner/trained but Dicky Johnson rides, it may be better though right
handed in any case, Oscarta won here well in 2014 but clearly had problems since so that
leaves BINGO D'OLIVATE he is on a good mark based on old form, showed real glimmer
of a return to that level last time so gets the vote for the Patent today.
3.20 Moorlands Mist should be very competitive off 109, and Walk on Al is very appealing
too but I don't see either as out and out mud lovers, FINISH THE STORY is though and
having had a run over further, where he ran well for a long way, I think he is very nice
each way value here at odds around 8/1
So I'd BOG them all...
1.15 OLD SALT @ 14/1
2.20 BINGO D'OLIVATE @ 11/2 (Corals)
3.20 FINISH THE STORY @ 8/1
50p each way Patent costs you £7.00
These wont be proofed but we'll be back with some formal tips tomorrow.
Regards
Ian