If we start at the top of the market I'm not sure there is any great value in Fox Le Bei or Getaday in these attritional conditions and similarly Favori Logique who was runner up to our 33/1 winner Owl Creek Bridge last time may find this all a bit too gruelling.

 

There is solid collateral form from a race at Navan where FLYSINI won from DUBAI DEVILS and ICE COOL. Flysini a solid veteran gets a 5lbs penalty but still only runs off 1o stone 1 pound. Dubai Devils who you'd normally fancy to reverse that form with a pull is lumbered with 11 stone 9 pounds and it's the weight on its back that worries me more than the weight mark from the handicapper. ICE COOL carries 9 stone 12 pounds and that makes it possibly the most interesting of the three.

 

ROBIN DEUZ POIS from the Elliott yard will be OK at the trip, Going won't be ideal but it should cope and at the prices and with a bit of scope is probably the most sensible each way play.

 

At bigger Odds I can't resist a nibble on RIGHTBACK ATYA who is 13 now and an out and out plodder. Still retains some form though and 3 miles plus in mud holds no terrors, it will slow younger legs down and an old timer who will go through the pain barrier might be a good backstop. Won off 88 in 2018, runner up off 101 in 2019, has held form well and around 20/1 looks value.

 

 

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This will be proper heavy, none of the crust topped frost cover issues and conditions I've always enjoyed taking on with probably best success finding value at big prices.

 

I don't disagree with Sean in this race either about "value at top end of the market" as I think you find these conditions suit specific types and current form can go out of the window. Play your hunches and a bit of logic.

 

For that reason and with concerns about the trip and the ground and in some cases wunning off increased marks; I can leave out Regina Dracones, Enemi Publique, Itsnotinit, Takarengo and Difficult decision and it's not a difficult decision for me to do so and if they come home in the first 5 places I won't shed any tears or make any excuses.

 

It's all about speculate to accumulate and a few catch the eye.

 

Young Dev holds every card bar one and that it is very much a Limerick specialist. If it raced there in these conditions it would be pretty much Odds on but here and with no real form here, I can leave it off my list. Lisavalley Lass is in my long term track with a "can pick up a small race" note. I'm sure it can, there are glimmers of form but I would prefer a couple of furlongs less, think it will run well for a long way and just fade at the business end. Moyode Blue is inconsistent, a pig of a ride, jockey certainly earns his or her fee, certainly one that can plod on and on and walk over the line absolutely all out , a bit like a boxer who never knows when to throw in the towel, but it's won one not too long back and law of averages says that's the one this season. Grey Habit has a minor squeak and would not be surprised to see a BIG run at big odds.

 

I was left with 3 I want to invest something in. The most solid looks FENNOS STORM , won off 88, fine at trip, fine in mud, only niggle the mark but has run well enough to suggest it can oblige in optimum conditions off a mark of 99. LEE VALLEY LEGACY is a grand horse, too consistent for its own good really, rarely runs a stinker, won off 90, consistent off marks over 100 and you can usually rely on it to put everything in and just the type to plod on.

 

At bigger Odds there is something about DEDANANN that jumped off the page at me. Its best form has been on heavy and its best run was a very close up 4th at Clonmel over 3 miles in this ground. The price is too good to totally ignore.