Fairyhouse 1.02 and 1.37 races
SEAN - Fairyhouse - Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 7 1/2 furlongs - Soft>Heavy (no rain) - Division 1 and Division 2
1.02 DIVISION 1
14 run with 3 reserves so enhanced place opportunities.
The one to beat in this first division is Hostage To Fortune. 23lbs below it's Chase mark but it's clearly a better chaser than Hurdler. It should win, Odds are restrictive, if you want a win saver to cover your bets that's totally up to you. I want to find value to take it on and place at least.
Rajun Cajun is up 13lbs for a facile Down Royal win. Form figures are 0000/1 - I'll take that at face value and want to take this Northern winner on with some who I think have stronger form credentials as the market sees a win and possibly over-reacts to it.
ARDHILL for Gordon Elliott is moderate by stable standards but slowly finding a level it can win off. One that will make a nice stock horse for someone in time and pay its way. It has a bit of scope you'd think from a level in the mid to high 90's, that level alone should ensure a place run in this field and it should also improve for this step up in trip having come from 3 mile P2P fields. If the hot favourite doesn't win this one looks most likely at a bit of each way value.
There are 3 at bigger odds I found it tough to split as all have place chances.
In order of preference I'd put GLENABO BRIDGE who has the assistance of Gavin Brouder. Has had 3 runs sine 632 days off and has finished 5th, 4th and 2nd so clearly the spark is still there. Runs off a mark of 95 which looks in range, another who should benefit from a step back up in trip and the clincher is the 7lbs Claim of Brouder.
I think both NICHOLES MILAN and Mystic Embarr who have good Course winning form can out run Odds. If you want a second Tracker i'd just favour NM who has won 3 times over CD, a veteran now in many ways but 2 runs to get fit, proven stamina and a mark around 90 give it a cracking place chance to enhanced places. Just preferred to Mystic Embarr who is locally trained, this might buy the proverbial turkey but best mark is around 80 so even with a 7lbs Claimer up has to run right up to form.
TIP - ARDHILL - Tracker - Glenabo Bridge (Nicoles Milan)
1.37 Division 2...
I can leave the 2 market leaders and take it on the chin if they hose up. They were 1st/2nd in a race at Punchestown where they went off at 40/1 and 25/1 with very little previous form. I've looked at the race and what's come out of it...and of those out since who finished closest a 13th and a PU does not really inspire confidence in the validity of the form. A chance I'll take!
Robindavidastar is one with a bit of long term potential to keep an eye on as it steps up in trip, Half Shot is a 3 mile P2P winner who could be a bigger danger upped 1/2 a mile and together with HAPPIE DAYS one I fear the most. Happie Days takes a big Class drop from last time out, was previously runner up off a mark of 90 over 3 miles in Good ground and running off 93 with a 7lbs claimer has to be a great each way price.
I think BALLEA FOX and Moyode Lady have good place chances. Preference is for BALLEA FOX from whom I expected a bit more last time, but may just have needed that run so absolutely no excuses here. A Punchestown winner off 89 and runner up off 87 in heavy conditions, may be soft enough here to be ideal ground and has a cracking place chance at least on the form book off 88 with a 5lbs claim. I'd argue stronger overall form than the 2 market leaders if you ignore that Punchestown form above
Moyode Lady will win races and if you want a second Tracker bet would not put you off at all. placed off 88 and 91, ideal trip and Going my only niggle for a horse who tends to run no more than 2 weeks apart and thrives on it is the 7 week break.
TIP - HAPPIE DAYS / Tracker Ballea Fox. (Moyode Lady)