SEAN - Fairyhouse 2.40 - Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 7 and 1/2 furlongs - 15 run - Soft>Heavy

 

This race looked top heavy on initial analysis with 4-5 clear in the market but on closer analysis, I feel the top 3 currently are all opposable.

 

Breagagh is upped 1/2 mile in trip, weakened noticeably when upped to 2 and a half miles on one occasion, may benefit from a longer trip but at the price is anything but bombproof. The same applies to Papa Burns who is upped the best part of a mile in trip, again, it may unlock potential but there is no known P2P form to latch on to. Reserve Judgement is the most obvious one but took a crashing fall that caused mini mayhem when leading narrowly last time out and one i think may need a confidence boost as a result and won't appreciate it if on the Heavy side of soft or dead ground. 

 

We then have 3 likely types but with questions to answer, Mick Charlie is lightly raced in recent years, popped up over Course and Distance on penultimate run off a mark of 90, did less well last time and is still on a mark of 99, gets a 4lbs claim but I just wonder if that win was his limit for now, although he did win off 100+ before a couple of years off. It's all about the value and the price and I'm not convinced. 

 

COURTING VICKIE and KILLINURE LASS at prices around 8-10/1 are definitely each way value, CV just gets the trip and should be OK if ridden to get the trip, KL is on a higher than ideal handicap mark after some notable successes last season and has struggled in two runs. It did improve markedly on 3rd run last time finishing runner up and though the handicap mark and top weight is a concern has the "been there done it" tag that can't be ignored.

 

Most have the rest either have a lot to prove or simply don't seem good enough apart from MERRY MOVES who could be great value at 20/1 plus and one long term in the TRACKER. It likes soft going, has run well a few times on the Inner Hurdles track here off marks in the high 80's, thoroughly exposed but proven at trip and in the conditions and off a mark of 91 with a 2lbs claim, does really jump off the page a bit!

 

Tips (1) Killinure Lass (2s) Merry Moves / (3s) Courting Vickie