Fairyhouse 3.53

SEAN - Fairyhouse 3.53 - Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 3 and 1/2 furlongs - 16 run (3 reserves) - Soft > Heavy
 
This is probably the most competitive race on the card despite there being 3-4 tightly priced at the top of the market and with enhanced places and the likely gluepot Conditions I'm keen to take the market on.
 
Carbon KIng is odds on following a nice win over 2 miles at Naas last time, its up 10lbs for that and whilst clearly a massive danger is by no means bomb proof. Happy Dreams has won Chases off marks of 88 and 97, comes back Hurdling off a nice mark but that is a transition that doesn't always work. Banada Bridge has lengthened a bit in the market and may be some e/w value now but its had a 2 month break, I'm not totally convinced it wants the deep gluey mud and despite a good run here over 2 miles and 4 furlongs I would prefer to watch than invest.
 
They are using the Inner Track here and that means its tighter and you have to keep a horse going forwards more and tougher to take a breather or regain ground it you hit a flat spot.
 
Dragons Pass may just need the run and the type to hit a flat spot if that's the case, Elsannah (reserve) and Elzoom have both shown a few glimmers of form and are well worth Tracking and watching, Mighty Jeremy has only competed 1 run since late 2019 but showed real promise at that time and it'll be interesting to see what ability remains if fit and ready. Truckers Angelat big odds won a 3 mile P2P but has disappointed so far but the mark is declining and it should find a level at some point. RESERVE JUDGEMENT is in the long term Tracker, they go for cheek pieces and I'll be disappointed if this one doesn't show a bit more. We saw with West Away another long term Tracker a much better run yesterday at 3 figure Odds and patience is the key with these long term types.
 
I narrowed my investment selections though down to 3 horses and have a bit more than quiet confidence in them and i'll be disappointed if they are all in the first 5-6 home and therefore making us a bit of profit at least.
 
ROBINDEVIDASTAR ran very well here on the Outer course when runner up on its penultimate run, it has excuses for the last run but back here off a mark of 86 with a 5lbs Claimer it should be placing at the very least. GETACLAN is far more experienced than most of these and should be able to take advantage of that on these terms. Its placed a few times and 2 miles 6 furlongs off a mark of 81. I expect some of those more used to 2 miles will go off a yard too quickly in the conditions and provided GETACLAN can lay up just off the pace and not get detached it can be doing all of its best work late on and hopefully gain a place at least. Another with some Course form on the Outer tRack at further is SON OF TULLY who is another who will be trying to lay up and come late if the race changes shape as they turn in and hit the rising ground.
 
TRACKERS - Robindevadastar / Getaclan - Shrapnel - Son Of Tully