A 15 runner field but hard to find too much that would carry great confidence on this occasion at the bottom end of the market.

 

The obvious pair to start with are Course Specialists DAWSON CITY (who won for us as a tip last time out at Wincanton) and Findusatgarcombe, who we have regularly tipped here but frustratingly missed last time it won. Both are exposed but proven stamina, Course expertise and the lack of any excuses about the Going today will make them redoubtable and dangerous opponents. Not for me though on this occasion.

 

Special Acceptance was runner up to a winning tip of ours in The Sussex National at Plumpton in the early part of January, that was off a mark of 118, the horse is progressive, runs off 124 and rates a danger on that basis. Amateur won over 3 miles and 2 furlongs off a mark of 109, steps up to a mark of 117 and with stamina unproven beyond 3 miles and 2 furlongs looks to be a bit short in the market to me. Samuel Jackson is the favourite, runner up over 3 miles here last time out, a winner over 3 and a 1/2 miles at Taunton off a mark of 132, was 4th in this race in 2019, running off a mark of 123 today he clearly has a form chance but I don't think is any great market value and at the Odds, I am happy to take a chance on a pair of others.

 

CHHRISTMAS IN APRIL won this in fine style last season off a mark of 129. Runs off a 6lbs higher mark today and is top weight. The pure form since does not look good but the Yard has had a torrid year with viruses and tragedy in the family. They seem to be coming into some kind of form and if the horse turns up in anything like beter form has the scope and ability to win this race again. I actually think on that basis it is excellent market value.    

 

Due to the gradual improvement in the ground and weather I don't envisage this being an absolute slog in knee deep mud and that brings the possibly very progressive TALKTOMENOW into the  equation. An unexposed 7 year old, could not have a better jockey than Gavin Sheehan, not a yard to throw a horse into the deep end. They and we will wonder about stamina but if the race is run at a sensible pace it's the one in the field that could really improve for the trip and has shown no signs of not being anything but a very interesting long distance Chase prospect.

 

 

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The 3 at the top of the market are really strong and genuine dangers.

 

We tipped UISCE UR to win where it made all and ran a very brave race to hold on. The is a very different track though to Warwick and up 5lbs and on Course debut I can leave it out of deliberations today. Very keen to look at individual horses with almost their own private Profit and Loss account, a factor we will start to expand on in the coming months, as an 11/1 winner, we've had some value and will wait for it's turn to come round again in the right race at the right Odds.

 

Eaton Miller won a Chase last Sunday, gets in without penalty, clearly in form but you have to go back to 2018 for its last Hurdle run, if it wins it's excellent opportunism by the Trainer, I'm happy to take that chance. TIPPALONG TYLER is the one at the top of the market I most fear, won at Doncaster in December off a mark of 94 over just short of this trip, 3rd off this mark of 100 last time, a Course winner in the past off a mark of 82, but at the price, a "win saver" if you want one and probably better value that UU or EM.

 

I'm most interested in three at bigger prices.

 

AVANTGARDIST is one I've dabbled with a few times. A Course winner, 4th over Course and Distance too in December 2019, can travel very smoothly in races which suits the "hands and heels" category and who looks like one that will appreciate the slightly better conditions. 

 

LATE SHIPMENT was a runner up at this trip in Hereford in 2019 off 102, has some good solid Course form here and is a big danger at a nice price.

 

GOODNIGHT CHARLIE can run prominently and has proven stamina, was runner up in this corresponding race in 2019 off a mark of 102. It runs off a mark of 90 here and a return to Warwick and this type of race is very interesting at a very juicy each way price.

 

I'll side with AVANTGARDIST and GOODNIGHT CHARLIE and if either didn't run then LateShipment would be reserve and I'll play a few Tricast lines with those and Tippalong Tyler