I think the Going yesterday was genuinely soft, a bit of rain since, absolutely no excuses though, there could be some high winds in gusts, I don't think that'll be a huge factor either.

 

A competitive race as you'd imagine I narrowed the 22 down to 5 horses and of those who didn't make that cut I would think that Cracking Smart for the Elliott team could be a bit of a springer at huge odds and outrun them, Downtown Getaway is a danger as an ex Henderson horse, gone to Mullins, just feel it will need the run but one to keep a very beady eye on for Cheltenham. Ballyshannon Rose has won 4 on the spin from a mark of 87 up to 129 today, where is the ceiling??...I'd suggest this is in this company but you can never fully rule out a prodigious improver.

 

Koshari won last time for mullins off a break of over 600 days so we have to fear it, its up 9lbs, niggle about the trip, but Townend likes it more than anything else in the yard it seems. At the top of the market, PURE GENIUS was a facile winner last time and DAMALISQUE brings good form, but I'm not really sure about either in these conditions and at the prices I don't think they have much each way value and not confident either will win.

 

DANDY MAG was an impressive winner last time, gets an 8 pound hike, that pulls others in behind in to the picture, it's a huge danger and worth a small investment but didn't quite make my top 3 or 4. THE JAM MAN won the Troytown, how relevant that form is I'm not 100% sure, what I am sure about is the fact that the horse was runner up in this off 139 last year, runs off 143 here, and having been 9th in The Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham last time, I'm trying to figure what they attack at Cheltenham in a months time. Another big danger. A bit of shrapnel on either would be recommended if you want to optimise the generous enhanced place Odds on Offer

 

My top 3 in order of preference..

 

UNEXPECTED DEPTH was 3rd in the race Dandy Mag won, gets 4 lbs for just under 3 lengths, I think he'll be fitter and sharper for this and the Mullins horses were on the crest of a wave at the time of the last meeting. ANYTHING WILL DO was 5th in that race at a time when the Yard were under a bit of a cloud. Definite signs in the past week or so that the horses are running better, may have been vaccine time, I think it'll improve for the run, needs a few pounds rise to assure a run at Cheltenham and had a sighter in the Martin Pipe last year. Finally an Elliott improver in FRONTAL ASSAULT who is up 7lbs but progressing, another yard whose horses are coming to peak and I can't leave it out of final deliberations.

 

So in order of preference with a Tracker Stake on each-:

 

Trackers - UNEXPECTED DEPTH / ANYTHING WILL DO / FRONTAL ASSAULT with The Jam Man @ 12/1  and Dandy Mag @ 18/1 next rated.

 

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A very competitive field and I ended up with 3 I strongly fancy and without aiming for it a very strange twist.

 

Let's look at the dangers first.

 

Mortal and Scoir Mear strike me as over-priced and at big odds should give you a fun bet if you fancy some loose change.

 

Blazer was 4th in this in 2020 off 140, runs off 136 off a 137 day break. Clearly being aimed at something. I expect a big run but not sure he's fit enough or they are daft enough to blow a declining mark. Livelovelaugh was runner up in this in 2019, 11 now, this could be his target, danger on that basis and just missed the final cut. Farclas and Crossed My Mind are at head of the market, both have good chances but not great value for me with Going niggles for Farclas and a rising mark for Crossed my mind, I'm happy to take both on here.

 

The one I can't totally ignore and yes it may be our cliff horse is FITZHENRY. I don't think Cheltenham is on the radar, I think the drop in trip helps, I think the mark is ideal, NO excuses but we've said that all season.

 

I was left with 3 very confident horses...all from the same Yard of Henry De Bromhead.

 

MINELLA TIMES looks laid out for the race, Rachel rides, very solid. TRAINWRECK was runner up in this last year, looks to be coming to hand, just a couple of pounds more and I can see a very big run. To complete the trio and another coming to hand is MYTH BUSTER who has a similar profile to Trainwreck and should now be spot on to run his race. Too much to ask for a 1-2-3 - it would be a massive achievement but I'll be very disappointed it we haven't got a winner there and at least a couple of nice places.

 

TIP - MINELLA TIMES - Trackers - Trainwreck + Myth Buster - can't resist a small dabble on Fitzhenry @ 33/1