This looks very competitive as you'd expect but back in the days when I used to focus on Irish Racing before Sean came in a few years back I always focussed on both Course form and collateral form very strongly in Ireland with some notable successes.

 

I narrowed my shortlist down initially to around half of the field and coincidentally there is what I believe is strong collateral form between 6 of them which I will come on to.

 

Let's start with a few who I think will outrun big odds first though. DALLAS DES PICTONS would be the Elliott dark horse for me at a bigger price, it's wholly exposed so not hiding anything from the handicapper but I think a bit overlooked here. It's got Course and Distance winning form and at a big price could sneak an enhanced place if putting it all in today. For the Mullins yard I feel the same about last years winner MAZE RUNNER who won this off 125 least year, out of form at the moment it seems and the mark has dropped to 134 but a good 5lbs claim off its back and some welcome rain (that might not quite come soon enough but which should take any sting out of the ground) and I can see a better bid than the market anticipates. So if you fancy a few extra bob at big odds to nothing those would be the pair for me.

 

There are others though with solid chances.  Whatsnottoknow was unlucky here at Christmas and went in to notebooks and Trackers as a result. A mark of 125 gives it a sporting each way chance here and a big run would not surprise. Enjoy D'Alene had an excellent Chase run here at Christmas and is rarely seen over Hurdles these days but runs off a basement mark over the smaller obstacles as a result. You could argue its "thrown in" and it is but this is not the type of race I think you can just transition in to quickly and I think it's more of a prep for something at Cheltenham and to have a good blow in what is sure to be a truly run race. Righplacerightime gets the assistance of ms Blackmore, off a feather weight and has a good Course record but quite simply I fancy a few more strongly and the Bookies are probably a bit short in terms of price. A bigger danger may be the unexposed and fast improving Priory Park, but up 10lbs and half a mile I'm happy to take it on.

 

There is strong collateral form from a race over Course and Distance here a few days after Christmas.

 

Panda Boy won that and is up 8lbs for that win and in many ways is the one they all have to beat but I think the form of that race, some weight adjustments and form in races elsewhere prior to that race indicate that there are 4 I like better to varying degrees. I can't see Panda Boy being out of the first 3-4 home with luck in running so a Placepot / Tricast Banker for me but I really fancy a few more in terms of a straight tip investment and happy to take what would be a crushing upper-cut if it does win!

 

DUNBOYNE has genuine excuses in that race and finished 5th and a career best performance despite bad luck in running. I have a hunch Panda Boy was at peak that day and that we haven't yet seen the best of DUNBOYNE who gets an 8lbs pull for around 7 lengths. A GREAT VIEW who seems a very consistent horse off this type of mark is actually 8lbs better off for 6 lengths and its consistency in a number of other races can't be overlooked.

 

I think that the weight here may just do for UNEXPECTED DEPTH who has to carry 11 stone 12 pounds and is not as well off with some of the others with Panda Boy. I think the market though has overlooked FUTURUM REGUM who ran in to 3rd place, is a gradual improver and who gets a pound pull and possibly the most overlooked horse in the race and who is a staggeringly good price on that basis in POUR PAVORE who just gets this trip but who I think has been seriously overlook and who gets an 8lbs pull too.

 

Hopefully the Course and Collateral form logic pays off.