I've been getting proven form v potential very wrong in recent months and again we are confronted by a race where the top end of the market is stacked with potential, unproven at the trip and in a big field scrummage like this is likely to be and lower down the more proven form of horses possibly primed for the day but with inconsistency as their middle name. The skill and much success in recent years for me has been to "Pick the right one on the right day" and whilst reassessing my logic, I have again today ended hours of deliberation firmly on the side of proven form, big race form, stamina form and Course form. It remains to be seen whether it's time for the pendulum to swing back in favour of my logic or not.

 

Of those at the top end of the market, LOCKS CORNER comes over from the mainland for Jonjo with a very impressive cv, but much of it on better ground than this is likely to be, we don't know if the horse is a good traveller or not, so at the price I will take it on. CASTLEBAWN WEST has clearly been laid out for the race by Willie Mullins but again, no value given the lack of conclusive form at the trip in these conditions, if it hoses up I'll take another of this type on the chin. I've similar thoughts on FARCLAS and of those near the top of the market i did look longest at MINELLA TIMES who could be suited by the step up to 3 miles more than some of the aforementioned, but whose runs at this Track in the past have been very disappointing and HOME BY THE LEE who is another who has it all to prove at the trip but on pedigree and runs so far looks likely to benefit from it.  

 

So having taken out most of the top end of the market one who I think has an excellent chance is CAPTAIN CJ. A good third in the Porterstown last time, a progressive profile and on I have no trip concerns about and I will be very disappointed if it's not in the first 3-4 home. 

 

There are numerous dangers, including CLASS CONTI who fell in this race last season before being an impressive runner up in the Thyestes of a mark of 142, a sole run so far and off 147, I'm anticipating a decent run to get it fit and a few pounds off for another crack at the Thyestes in the not too distant future. They would blow that mark with a win here and it's looks a bit under-cooked to consider they have really targeted this race. DISCORDANTLY was 4th in the Troytown and that's solid form, won previously off 132 and 142 for Jessie and a strong run is likely but it just looks to be a bit past its current optimum mark at the moment, one I really fear though.

 

Having looked and discounted all of the rest I'm left with four I really like the chances of to back up CAPTAIN CJ in the race.

 

MILAN NATIVE and ROARING BULL are both at long odds for Covid stricken Gordon Elliott. We naturally wish him a speedy recovery and neither are forelawn hopes as we saw when Roaring Bull placed for us at 66/1 earlier in the Autumn. It won this race in 2019, off a mark of 135, is still only a 7 year old and I think we just have to take it's inconsistency on the chin. I've said before many times, Elliott horses are either in contention of pulled up to protect or reduce marks, I'm convinced that's the tactic and if this one gets in to a rhythm and is in contention 1/2 mile out, he will run his race and possibly place at big Odds, if not he'll vanish out the back just as they turn in. Milan Native won a Kim Muir no less off a mark of 141, Pulled Up quickly last time over a fair bit further having run well to this sort of distance, we'll take the hint as I think this one could seriously outrun huge Odds. No stamina doubts and a decent mark with an excellent Claimer up.

 

The other pair who placed last year are FITZHENRY and PLAN OF ATTACK, I've been convinced all year that this is the target for Fitzhenry, runner up last year, 3rd in 2019, if you believe in 3-2-1 then you'll be as confident as I am that there is a big win in this lovely horse and I'm hoping it gets luck in running and delivers just that. I reluctantly leave out PLAN OF ATTACK it will be my reserve, and I'll drop it in to a few Tricast Perms and have a bit of loose change on it, I think they might be plotting an attack on the Kim Muir, where it was 4th last year and just needs a few more pounds off the handicapper but my biggest danger outside of the 4 selections.

 

Reserves like Aforementioned and Scoir Moir worry me but if they do get a run and are not heavily backed, I'd not put you off a very small side stake on either.