It's heavy ground advertised but after little rain but a fair bit of frost is more like that horrible puddling like gluey stuff so caution in staking but nonetheless a race that may throw up a chance of some nice each way profit.

 

If we go back 3 weeks to the Sussex National a few miles down the road Go Whatever beat Pemberley by an easy 7 lengths and Pemberley gets 7 lbs for that defeat. After a spell of 3 weeks to recover from what was a very tough race and at likely odds of 4/1 and about 11/2, I'll leave both alone today although another 1-2 would be no surprise if you wanted to have a small reverse forecast saver bet.

 

Laskalin for the in form Venetia Williams yard is a typical recruit for them, ex French and has won there over 3 miles on "heavy" but I'd suggest that is wet very wet heavy and not this glue!. It could be anything and is respected and feared but at the price I want some more tangible form in the very unique conditions.

 

Just Your Type for the Longsdon yard has been 4 miles but despite some form in wet heavy has been kept usually to better ground and I'm not sure this horse is a slogger!. Eclair Mag is OK on this type of ground but not proven at the trip and Fado Des Brosses for another in-form Williams (Evan) is another ex French horse who has won on heavy (wet) Going at just over 3 miles and just like Venetias frankly could be anything and a big run would not surprise.

 

Those are the more favoured and promising less exposed types, now for those more exposed, out of form but ones with more experience of the likely conditions here today.

 

The Galloping bear has some solid P2P and Hunter Chase form, will relish conditions but will have to run very well to shoulder the weight round here. Little Red Lion has won the last 4 races its finished off marks of 99, 106,111 and 119 but in between those has fallen twice, been brought down once and pulled up once. The trip is a bit of an unknown too but if it came down the hill final time round in contention may be worth £2 in running if that floats your boat.  Colonel Keating trained locally by Richard Rowe who has an excellent Course record step up in trip and grade but has done all asked of him so far and Seaston Spirit we'd again point out as being a horse who looked to have some serious ability and big races to participate in a year ago but whose recent form has been a shadow of what was expected. Can it regain that, if it can it would be incredible value for those that want a bit of shrapnel on it.

 

I'm left with 3 at nice Odds I just feel will be most suited by conditions including one in the Tracker for a small investment too.

 

SAMUEL JACKSON has had 2 runs and this feels a bit like a target race. It won over an extended similar trip up that hill at Exeter off a mark of 123 battling right to the line and has also won on this type of ground. I like him a lot and will be disappointed if he's not right in contention. SMOOTH STEPPER may be 13 now and has been in the AP2 Tracker for 4 seasons believe it or not. It is another that should be running into peak form and fitness and this is a definite drop in Grade and Class and it won at this trip and on this type of ground and could outrun the Odds which look good value.

 

Far more speculative but in the Tracker for the next runs or two is ECHO WATT, its had 3 runs so fully fit, its last win at Bangor over 3 miles off a mark of 118 was in gluepot conditions and it runs off a nice mark off a feather weight and may just nick a place as other struggle to get home.