This should be a real slog in the mud at this galloping track that rides pretty stiff but tens to suit those who can run prominently and up with the pace.

 

There are some nice unexposed Novice Chasers in here and a few decent Hurdlers trying to get to grips with the bigger fences.

 

At the head of the market are Lean Araig who at 12 years of age has found some form after a decent career hurdling. It's sure to be very competitive but may be exposed to something that benefits from the conditions and the trip, possibly some unexposed P2P from too. I fear it but will take it on. NOTICE TO CLOSE has run up a hat trick of wins and looks progressive but off a mark of 129 has to reach a ceiling based on tha law of averages telling us very few can win 4 in a row and although the prominent running style will suit, have to think something will stalk it and strike.

 

Primitive off top weight is the undoubted class of the race when it comes to potential, is eased a bit in terms of the quality of the competition it faces, 3 times a hurdle winner, no doubt it can handle conditions but I just have a couple of niggles being the weight in this ground and also that fact it doesn't yet look a natural jumper and may make a few errors out of this boggy ground. A horse who will win Chases, I'll wager not quite today. MOSCOWSOWHAT has won over the trip and on heavy, win at Tramore, runner up at Fairyhouse where the small yard tend to excel, up 3lbs and a big danger but I fancy a couple at bigger prices so will take my chances.

 

Fag An Bealach will be a danger with it's Course and Distance winning form before Christmas but may not quite be up to this slightly deeper quality, Ilikethewayurthinkin is another to watch out for in the future, but seems better on Good Going and makes handicap debut and this canny yard might not yet want to give the handicapper any excuse to hike the mark, definitely one to track in to the Spring!

 

Fully Charged a stablemate of Primitive has some decent hurdle runs but looks like it needs another summer of schooling and doesn't yet look a natural jumper of fences and at BIG Odds I think the one most likely to outrun them is THE DABBLER who might be worth a shrapnel dabble based on some interesting P2P form that collaterally indicates it's on a decent handicap mark and with proven 3 mile stamina in mud.

 

The pair for me though are IFICUDIWUD for Noel Meade who I dabbled with before and who looks to be getting the hang of the Chasing game now. Won a 3 mile P2P on Good, placed a 2 and 3 miles over Hurdles and a winner at 2 and a half mileson soft and on heavy. I can't find any reason or excuses on that basis why it should have an excellent each way chance of some place money at least.

 

I've got mixed views on STORMY JUDGE but it can run prominently which will suit, it has form on heavy and the booking of Danny Mullins catches my eye. I think there is enough there at the price for a small bet. 

 

TIP - IfIcudIwud / TRACKER - Stormy Judge (small side investment on The Dabbler @ 22/1 to 4th place if you wish)

 

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In the Handicap Hurdle at 2.45 over 2 miles Baltimore Bucko is a French import who made a very favourable impression last time out and could be anything, McAlpine has form over a bit further and in mud to suggest it could run a place and would be of more interest if it wasn;t third reserve. SHAKEYTRY and Aarons Day are worth market leaders and of them I fancy Shakeytry with Aarons Day running off 343 days off and may be needing the run.

 

STAR MAX has placed over 2 and a half here off a mark of 135 in heavy going in a Chase and interesting at the big price off this hurdles mark.

 

The one who really catches the eye though is BOLD EMPORER, very solid and consistent, twice run prominently over further and faded at around this trip, it has won at 2 miles and one i think could slip the field, get in to a rhythm and run a place at least with enhanced place Odds.

 

TRACKER - BOLD EMPORER  + SHAKEYTRY (I'll personally play a Tricast with  a bit of shrapnel and Tricast perm with Star Max @ 25/1)

 

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