Navan 2.20 Troytown Chase - 3 miles - 19 run - Soft (no rain could be sticky)

 

I don't think we need to beat about the bush here, FRONTAL ASSAULT ticks so many boxes and is laid out for the race. At around 9/4 he's decent win value and it would be silly not to invest. There are at least 4 places on offer though so lets try to fill them en masse!

 

It's a tough track here with a steady climb up the long straight, it can also be very gruelling when heavy and although not likely to be very deep it could be sticky. Elliott runs 9, Mullins a couple and a fair few of these aren't totally proven at the trip and a few may need the run.

 

I'm not sure the Course nor the mark helps The Big Dog, I fear Velvet Elvis but a 10lbs rise may find him out, the trip wouldn't be my ideal one for Lifetime Ambition on sticky ground, I'm just not sure about how good or how mentally ready Fighter Allen is for this, it's Mullins so you can never write them off. 

 

If FRONTAL ASSAULT falters I think far the most likely to pick up the pieces is DEATH DUTY, it's had a run and was running a place when unseating, it gets the very capable assistance of Davy Russell and is exceptionally well handicapped. We flagged up DEFI BLEU on seasonal debut and he ran well and followed that up when runner up last time, it ticks every box apart from the fact that you just never know what this horse is going to do and consistency is his biggest negative, having said that we'd look right chumps if he scooted away and won! Glenloe is in the Tracker and I'm loathe to leave out but will just in favour of Defi Bleu. 

 

For some shrapnel at bigger prices , I like FARCLAS a runner up off 148 in this last year and running off 150 with a 5lbs Claim this year, SCHOOL BOY HOURS has won and been runner up fresh and may just be right to catch first time up, a mark of 140 doesn't put me off and at big odds I'll have the "Elliott £1 e.w" on COKO BEACH a Course and Distance winner off 150 whose optimum mark is around 140 these days and who runs off 145 with a 5lb Claimer who is a decent (allegedly) American rider.

 

 

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A tough and competitive Handicap and another hot favourite. I'm less convinced though about Jungle Prose who has won 3 times off marks of 85, 97 and 109 and runs off a mark of 125 and gives tons to the very well handicapped REBELLIOUS GALE who should be spot on for this with no excuses so an each way Tip!

 

Bay Ambition would have a chance here, Bodhisathia is interesting from the Elliott yard but something of an unknown quantity. Lessofdnegativity is also of interest back over Hurdles and could run a place on best form, Shanwalla is one I'll add to the TRACKER, as could be one to follow but likely to need the run. If you want a £1 e/w on one at a huge price then WINGIN A PRAYER caught my eye on this old Hurdles mark.

 

There weren't too many that jumped off the page at me but POLITICISE, MERCURY LANE and LORD ERSKINE stand out and I'll be very disappointed if they aren't in the first 6-8 home here.

 

LORD ERSKINE has Flat form but I have no concerns about the trip nor the ground off a nice mark, POLITICISE has now proven it can get 3 miles over fences, never ran over this trip over hurdles but has good form in these conditions and has a nice proven Hurdles mark, MERCURY LANE is also back Hurdling and will come on a ton for recent run, it gets ideal conditions off a competitive mark.

 

 

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