The winds may have a factor but should also ensure that any rain showers are quickly dried so really no-one should have any complaints it'll be Good to Soft with a bit of Soft.

 

CLOTH CAP ran an outstanding race in this last year, winning from the front and will no doubt try to do the same again today although it carries 18lbs more and tactically others will be prepared for it. If prominent running styles dominate it could be a real carve up at the front and whatever wins will need to jump well all the way round and have proven stamina. It's the type of race where a jumping error you suspect won't be easy to recover from.

 

The market leaders are EKLAT DE RIRE for Henry De Bromhead and ONTHEROPES for Willie Mullins. The market seems to assume they will dominate and leave the home contingent well behind. That may well be the case but important to remember 2 facts (a) this isn't Cheltenham in March where Irish horses clearly arrive well handicapped often with form under a bushel and (b) they don't have a great tradition in this race although (c) horses who ran in certain races at the previous Cheltenham Festival do tend to run well here.

 

At the prices I'm happy to take both on and seek the each way value of something at double figure Odds.

 

If we look at some of the more fancied by the market types, Fiddlerontheroof won well on seasonal debut, yard is in much better form but at 15/2 I have a niggle about the trip and also the relative lack of big field experience the horse has. Cloth Cap as we have touched upon can't be discounted, both Copperhead and Demachine will have their supporters but both could need the runs and the Trainer comments on both suggest that they will come on for the run and that drier than normal recent weather may mean they have come here slightly undercooked. No doubt both can be winning big races though this term.

 

Cloudy Glen is another making seasonal debut for Venetia Williams and it has won first time out before so at around 25/1 was closely considered but just left out of the final reckoning. 

 

I was left with a shortlist of 5 and will have a shrapnel bet on MISTER MALARKY, he's had a run, is a Course winner, runs off a nice mark and gets a good 7lbs Claimer to make that mark look even more attractive. He's wonderfully inconsistent and we'll know early on whether it's a going day or not, if you have scope to watch and back "in running" that may be a useful angle. I can't resist a few bob either on CANELO another who has had a run, who has Course form and could stay on past beaten and better horses who may be saved for another day.

 

That's one angle of these big Autumn races it's always worth taking in to account, the fact that some horses who will be aimed at the main Spring Festivals won't be bottomed out in Autumn races when chances are gone, and you'll often see something at a big price come late in to enhanced places as a result.

 

In that context I can't leave out THE HOLLOW GINGE who was 4th in this race in 2020, 14 lengths behind the winner, logically therefore well handicapped and just fits that bill of a horse in here to run to its merits and pick up some nie prize money perfectly. It's been nibbled at but around 16-20/1 should give us a run for our money right to the line.

 

I thought POTTERMAN ran an outstanding race at Wincanton, jumped beautifully and I'm encouraged to read that Alan KIng thinks he'll come on a bit for that run. I have a small niggle about it's best form being right handed but it's one who can get in to a nice rhythm and will go close with luck in running. 

 

The profile for a progressive type suggests to me that REMASTERED may be the best in that group, David Pipe gave the horse a pipe-opener if you'll excuse the pun over Hurdles at Aintree, they ran the horse prominently and it had a good blow and that fitness advantage might just give it an edge over the likes of Copperhead and Demachine and Cloudy Glen at this stage of the season, I'm not sure it's better than those horses all things considered, but just feel it may have the edge today.

 

So we'll have 3 x Tracker bets and a bit of shrapnel on today.