Punchestown - Sunday 15th January
SEAN - Punchestown 3.10 - Handicap Chase - 2 miles 6 and 1/2 furlongs - 11 run - Heavy
This is likely to turn into a test of stamina and not many have obvious form in the conditions.
At the head of the market I'd have stamina concerns about Krabat, I'm not sure that Temptationsinmilan will appreciate Going this heavy and Balkito is lightly raced and may still need this run and not one they'll want to bottom out.
It's probably a trip on the short side for FALKERA but with Jamie Codd booked you'd think he'll be the one coming home best up the long if relatively gentle climb out of the back straight.
Royal Thief has been off for 2 years but showed immense promise and one to TRACK going forwards, John Adams is another I'll add to the Tracker as he has Course and Distance winning form but would prefer better Going I think.
A couple I can't ignore are NOTICE TO CLOSE who had a Course and Distance win last time out off 116, gets a 5lbs penalty but really got stuck in and battled to the line and definitely showed the will to win. I'll also have a small £1 e/w on HISTORY OF FASHION, out of form but slipping down the handicap as a result and lets not forget that after a win in Ireland early last year he was as short as 6/1 for the 2022 Eider Chase at Newcastle!
TIP - Falkera / Tracker - Notice To Close (small £1 e/w on History Of fashion)
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Sean - Punchestown 3.40 Handicap Chase - 2 miles 3 and 1/2 furlongs - 14 run - Heavy
I think a win saver on EARTHS FURIES here would be a wise investment as the others at the top end of the market like Highstreetfashion and Made In The Woods may struggle to confirm recent form in these more testing conditions which should be ideal for EARTHS FURIES.
Duffys Getaway and Huit Reflets lack experience over fences and this won't be easy ground to jump out of, Solomon Lane may not appreciate this Going and is best watched,
I really think conditions play right in to the hands of COURTING VICKIE a two and a half mile win in the Autumn off a mark of 79 came in similar ground, tried over perhaps too far and too short in two runs since, this is much more like optimal conditions and I'll be disappointed if we aren't placed at least.
At big Odds both AGIRLCALLEDCHLOE and EAGLE TERRACE ran prominently over further before fading last time, if you look back both were very close to the lead at this sort of distance and could last out this shorter trip and play a significant part in proceedings. At their odds, I'll have a shrapnel bet on both and if i had to pick one over the other it would be AGIRLCALLEDCHLOE who has a 3 mile P2P background.
TIP - Win - Earths Furies / Tracker - Courting Vickie / shrapnel - Agirlcalledchloe + Eagle Terrace