SEAN - Punchestown 3.10 - Handicap Chase - 3 miles 2 furlongs - 14 run - Heavy

 

No more rain anticipated so I think this will be a dour slog in clinging mud and the horse with the biggest heart and a patient strong jockey will probably prevail.

 

I think the market is frankly wrong and lopsided.

 

I can't be having Arverne at all at the Odds. A sketchy jumper, unproven at the trip or in the mud, if it wins, I'll take it on the chin but could never back it on form or price.

 

Ah Littleluck is another who can miss a fence too often and who hasn't yet shown an aptitude for heavy conditions.Highest Benefit comes from an in form stable but another who is unproven yet at this trip and in heavy Going and I'm not sure this is the day to see Handicap Chase debutant The Big Galloper in the best light either for Cliff Byrnes.

 

If those are ones I can't see winning, there are a few who I'd rate as big dangers about whom I have enough form and price niggles not to pick but massive respect and fear of.

 

Ask Mary is a mare who thrives at 3 miles plus in the mud. Placed over hurdles last season in these conditions off 90 and 92 and in a Chase off a mark of 99. My niggle is that she peaks and runs best in January - March period. Whether thats when they have her fully fit, or whether its a seasonal thing when hormonally she is at peak I'm not sure. One to track for sure after Christmas and I just hope she still needs this run. Cuneo has promised more than it's delivered and Gordon Elliott still hasn't found the magic switch that Henry De Bromhead increasingly couldn't. It will one day, hopefully not today as I think shorter and better Going are the ultimate key.Getaday steps up 2 furlongs and would be the BIGGEST danger of all if getting the trip and a back up in case of a non runner.

 

Considering all I think the best value with the best chance is ATLANTIC SHORE. Fine at 3 miles, perfectly happy in heavy going, fit and a bit of progressive scope, has to have a big chance.

 

I'm baffled at the price of both WISHMOOR and ASK AND ANSWER so want a touch on both. Wishmoor needed seasonal debut, might just still need this but is a Course winner on a nice mark and at the price worth a flutter and one to follow on next few runs whatever happens. ASK AND ANSWER has won off 97 and been placed off 101 at 3 miles plus on ground worse than soft. Three runs so far will have it fit and have been seriously inadequate trips. Off 102, I think it will outrun odds and be in front of more than it is behind at the finish so worth an interest.

 

TIP - ATLANTIC SHORE - Trackers Wishmoor + Ask and Answer.