SEAN-:

 

Firstly I'm going to watch the GN TRial race at 2.10, it's one of those where you're not quite sure what agenda some are running to in terms of handicap marks and fitness and as a result best to leave it alone. The only one I would be interested in would probably be DEATH DUTY if you need a placepot thought from the race.

 

The Handicap Hurdle at 3.45 though is very competitive and I'm absolutely sure will be very keenly contested.

 

 

I narrowed my thoughts down to a short list of 8 of the 17 having decided to leave the 2 market leaders alone for punting purposes. It's a competitive handicap and on the day I feel that both Bluebell Diva who has won off marks of 89 and 98 over 2 miles and then 2 miles 4 furlongs and VERDANT PLACE who won a Novice Hurdle at 2 miles 4 furlongs off a mark of 102 and who runs off a mark of 108, have enough questions to answer off increased marks let alone a step up in trip of almost 4 furlongs. The fact that neither have any 3 mile P2P form helps me to feel confident to take both on.

 

There's a fair bit of deadwood at the big priced end of the market I feel and I was left with 8 who are actually quite closely grouped in my analysis. A race where in the past I'd have thrown tips, trackers and shrapnel around, but I'm now 100% bought in to the new ways of working as it actually allows I think more scope to explain logic and analysis of specific horses.

 

So, I'll try to go through them in terms of confidence and probability. (in reverse order).

 

Cher Why not is one I've struggled to get right but is in good solid form and has wins off 85 and 92 and placed recently off an inflated mark of 104. It's in here off 104 and I think an enhanced place is the best it can deliver. Coventry is a cliss horse in many ways but has been in deeper Pertemps Qualifiers the last few times, this race is very similar over same Course and Distance as when runner up on seasonal debut and that may reflect a better chance here although I have to admit I'm mentally tained by too many failed attempts for this one. Ballyadam Destiny is back hurdling after some Chasing and is probably best assessed on a Handicap Hurdle win at Galway over 2 miles 6 furlongs off a mark of 109, its placed over Hurdles off a mark of 114 and runs here off a mark of 116 with a 5lbs claim. The nigggle is you can't ever be sure how quickly they will transition back to Hurdles from Fences and that's my main concern. I fear those three, sods law is that one of them pops up but there are 5 I fancy more.

 

Time Marches On has shown some promise and a mark of 114 looks about right it should run a good race and be bang in contention and has an above average Claimer in the saddle. A Great View was a Course and Distance winner in April last year off a mark of 124, it was in good form prior to that but has been poor since but it is a Course specialist, its mark has dropped and 124 with a 7lbs claimer looks very appealing. Bodhisattva is an Elliott inmate (like Coventry) and is running consistently, its mark now looks ideal, its had some good Course runs and frankly I can't find any reason at all not to invest in it today.

 

The hardest to quantify but the one with most scope may be Barbary Master, its been lightly raced, patiently trained and after a promisisng seasonal debut and no real ground nor trip concerns I just felt that a mark of 116 may be considerably more lenient than those at the top of the market that carry penalties. The one I'd have most confidence in overall is Martha Devine, a Course winner (although improtant to point out on the Inner Hurdle track), twice runner up though off marks of 115 and 116 at 3 miles and runs off 116 here. The consistency is there, the niggle is how much is left in the legs for the season?

 

So, I personally expect the first four home to be Martha Devine, Barbary Master, Badhisttva, and A Great View and I see Time Marches On, Ballyadam Destiny, Coventry and Cher Why Not as significan dangers.As Lloyd Grossman used to say back in the day on the programme where you had to guess who owned the house "it's over to you"...Sky and Betway go odds to 6th, almost all others go Odds to 5th, I'll throw 4 arrows , you may wish to throw fewer or more, but hopefully my thoughts and reasoning helps and is all on the table.