The Going is currently soft but a fair amount of rain is expected which should really get into the ground later on.

 

An interesting renewal and not too many have proven form at this trip in winter conditions.

 

Floueur is one of 4 Gordon Elliott runners and is unproven at the trip, very inexperienced compared to many and the actual form doesn't add up to the apparent market confidence. It's undoubtedly stable money and inside information lumping on, how good the horse is we'll find out , how much it wants a deluge I am pretty certain would be a big negative. I'm happy to leave it alone as i am stablemate Torygraph who makes its Handicap Chase debut here, it gets 3 miles and is OK on heavy but frankly it looks like a prep run to me for either Cheltenham or one of the Nationals.

 

The Big Dog won this last year, has been out of form since and whilst it could revive the price leaves little margin for error in terms of a net profit on the race. The Dabbler was an impressive runner up in The Porterstown so clearly has some stamina there but I don't think the rain helps him at all and i'm 100% they won't want to bottom him out in a slog round here if it does deteriorate.

 

Champagne Platinum is a nice horse and can win some nice races, its won at 3 miles on Yielding ground, a win or strong run here would open up numerous other possibilities and he is very much feared on that basis. BRACE YOURSELF is a very big price and it has proven placed form at the trip, it's won off a 195 day break before and runs off a 288 day break here, so at a price is worth a bit of shrapnel at any price over 33/1.

 

My favoured three against the field in order of preference though are STONES AND ROSES for Willie Mullins who is very lightly raced, has been 3 miles 5 furlongs already and has won on heavy ground. Off the mark of 134 it still has some scope and I think Townend will give the horse and kind race and let it come in to it late on and really the horse should now be approaching its peak.

 

I can't really split Elliotts pair DEATH DUTY and COKO BEACH. If I had to choose it would be a fag paper in favour of COKO BEACH who has run at the trip a few times beaten around 15 and 20 lengths, its won on heavy and the form of a win over 3 miles and 1 furlong in heavy at Gowran looks a canny bit of form for this and with the 5lbs Claimer bringing it close to that win mark I think it has solid place claims. DEATH DUTY was tailed off on its only try at this sort of trip but gets 3 miles fine and is also OK when it gets knee deep, off a nice mark, I just feel it may not quite have the stamina that its stablemate and the Mullins runner has.

 

TIP - Stones and Roses / Trackers - Coko Beach and Death Duty (bit of shrapnel on Brace Yourself @ 20/1 to 4th or 5th place if you wish)

 

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For a handicap nerd like me this is an absolute cracker, it may not be high on quality but what a puzzle!

 

At the head of the market Petrol Head is up 14lbs for winning over half a mile shorter before Christmas so let's move on SALMANINO is probably the one they all have to beat here upped 7lbs for a Course and Distance win in soft conditions, if you want any form of saver bet that's your choice, I fancy a few more at bigger and much bigger odds. 

 

Robinstown and Itsnotinit have solid form claims and probably around the right price in the market but I doubt Robinstown will welcome the rain and Itsnotinit will need to find more progress off a career high mark and I wonder too if a slog in the mud will induce that. Powersbomb will surely need the run and ideally better conditions when it is fully race fit and Silvertown although very consistent and a horse who deserves a win, steps up in trip and again questions about stamina in these conditions. Stockdale has a Course win at this kind of trip on the inner circuit which is much different and probably wont want too much rain and although Golden Cosmos does get the rain it needs and enjoys the trip, may be the handicapper is just in charge with that one now, but probably the biggest danger to the ones I will finally invest in.

 

At big big prices I would not rule out big big runs from Lean Araigh who comes back hurdling BUT if you go back far enough indeed 2015 ish, it did win Handicap Hurdles off marks of 115 and 125, is still a capable veteran and a mark of 102 with a 7 lbs claim still to come off does make the eyes water!!....certainly worth some loose change if it's deteriorated to very heavy by race time. Turbojet too who has been poor for a while but who gets new headgear would not be without a chance of running an enhanced place and as recently as last October it placed at Limerick in similar conditions. Those pair could both run big races here. Quaker Island is one i've dabbled with and is one to keep a close eye on but the rain definitely wont help its chances today but may bring his mark down to an even more favourable level for another day. Finally Classic Concorde, winner of this last year but not in good recent form cannot be totally discounted, they try blinkers but there are a few more that came out just above it in the final analysis.

 

YOUNG DEV ticks absolutely every box for me and if he is not placed at least it'll be very disappointing. He's been placed twice at the trip, very soft to heavy would be his ideal ground and a mark of 116 with a 7lbs Claimer reducing that further really is bang on win territory for me. ASK AND ANSWER was 5th of 22 on seasonal debut, will strip fitter and is definitely a fresh horse, a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 92, fine in the ground and has won off a mark of 97 on it, so off a mark of 91 here really has no excuses and optimum opportunity.

 

As much as I really like the long price chances of Lean Araigh and Turbojet and would have tipped them on some days at very similar Odds I have a great deal of confidence in SWEET STING, to the point where I'll be disappointed if it doesn't get some enhanced place profit for us here. Its won off 102 and 108 at the trip in soft and heavy conditions, it got clobbered by the handicapper after those wins and some brave and honest midfield runs did it no favours for a long while but it's slowly crept down and off a mark of 111 with a 7lbs Claim is now beginning to look well handicapped again. I'd 100% put it in your trackers whatever the outcome today as it can and will win races when it's give a fair weight and a fair chance.

 

TIP - Young Dev / Trackers - Ask and Answer and Sweet Sting (see notes re Turbojet / Lean Araigh) - reserve if n/r is Golden Cosmos