The Going was better than anticipated yesterday and although a few got caught close home it was clear that tactically a prominent running style could pay dividends. They have wisely scheduled this earlier than normal so that it doesn't get blighted by low sun, coincidentally a belt of showers could arrive around the time of the race but may have little impact, certainly less than had the race been an hour or so later.

 

It's a VERY compacted market at the top end, lots of formlines correlating and converging particularly with the recent Paddy Power Chase.

 

Let's look at all 14 though a whittle them down.

 

I don't think Franky Du Berlais is going to trouble the judges here, a decent summer jumping type but not really up to this I don't feel. We tipped Topofthecotswold last time and it unseated at the first fence. Whilst i think this race is too deep for it it can play a significant role I think in terms of pace and running prominently. The yard is in form and Sam can nick races from the front and along with Tommy Scu is probably one of the most likely to get the fractions right round here. My logic and head says it'll lead them in and then get gobbled up but a small shrapnel bet may just cover off the not outrageous notion that it could steal it off the front, especially with the second Sue Smith runner another front runner a non-runner.

 

Sirh Du Lac has been lightly raced for 3 seasons and not yet captured form of 3-4 years ago and probably not now up to this quality and depth of race, Zanza stayed on in an eye-catching style in the Paddy Power but the fractions suggest it was more running past beaten horses, I feel it may again be outpaced early and come late and possibly a similar outcome. Coole Cody was upsides but feeling the pinch when falling in the same race and struggled in this race last season, he loves Cheltenham but I feel more suited on evidence to the Old Course and for that reason not a tip for me today.

 

Beakstown has yet to win a Chase, this would be an amazing place to break that cycle and the Skeltons are red hot at the moment, I feel though it does need further and could get outpaced early, could run on late but overall not for me today.Silver Hallmark is a solid if unspectacular chaser, will win races for sure, maybe a level below this and a bit surprising given connections that this is its Cheltenham debut. Cepage runs in this for the 4th successive year, a runner up 3 years ago, we saw yesterday how dangerous any Venetia trained Chaser can be round here but the horse really does need the handicapper to relent in my eyes. Venetia also runs Farinet, a nice Sandown win but mostly kept to flatter tracs, eye -catching booking for Rachel Blackmore but it's in the "could be anything" category and I'm happy to take the chance it isn't quite ready yet!

 

Fusil Raffles may have been a lucky winner last time out and clearly poses a real threat here but even with a disappointing entry of only 14 horses I think with all of it's form in smaller fields, it'll be a danger but there are a few I fancy more. It was also hard for me to leave Lalor out, very impressive return for Paul Nicholls and who'd ever back against him on a Saturday but I'm still to be convinced he's the horse he once threatened to be and on balance at the price I'll wager against him today but a probably place banker if you want one.

 

We tipped MIDNIGHT SHADOW to win the Paddy Power and it did in great style. An excellent horse and although the 7lbs penalty will be a burden it's not excessive when you consider the last fence stumble that cost a lot of momentum. It's a measure of the horse and jockey that it was able to gather itself so quickly and still have the heart to win. Sue Smith is unusually bullish about this horse who may still be maturing late and I think what beats it wins the race for sure. Of those from the Paddy Power I think DOSTAL PHIL is the most likely as he is unexposed and that race should have him spot on. They'll have learned a lot from it and it gets a nice pull at the weights.

 

There is one at a big price who I can't leave out and it has some very interesting form in correlation with Midnight Shadow, it gets a 10lbs pull for it's run in the Paddy Power, which I think was needed and it will strip a lot fitter today but back in January 2020 here it finished 2 lengths behind Midnight Shadow off level weights (11 stones) and gets a whopping 21 lbs pull over the same Course and Distance. It's still an unexposed horse and on that evidence although very speculative, I can't resist a dabble.

 

 

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I think FINAL ORDERS is the one they all have to beat here with it's form franked by the winning machine Glenquin Castle.

 

Glenabo Bridge has done me many favours and could run into some form with decent Course and Distance placed form and he is one to keep a close eye on over the Festive period. He just misses a tip today but a handy reserve if anything I tip is a non runner.

 

NICOLES MILAN is a Course and Distance winner, race fit, assured stamina and off a competitive mark it will be very disappointing if not running a place at least. At big odds I think TRICKEY TRIX is again over-priced, it owes us one but does run well here 3rd of 14 in February, 5th of 18 in January off marks of 106 and 107 respectively, and with race fitness that does make this mark today of 98 with a 5lbs claimer look just too tempting to ignore.

 

TIP - FINAL ORDERS (win) / Trackers - Nicoles Milan + Tricky Trix (reserve Glenabo Castle)