One of the marquee big field Handicap Chases that are run over an extended 4 miles plus and long may it continue at a great venue sadly decimated by sand and low quality dross on the Flat but which still retains a few of its big Turf races over Jumps.

 

The key here for me is the Going, it's reported to be Good to Soft, its a sunny if chilly drying day and a concern would be that it dries out too much and starts to favour 3 milers unexposed at the trip. However, a huge amount of rain and snow fell up there in the past 7-10 days and I'm banking on it being quite holding and in patches heavy pudding ground that should bring stamina in to play and you know the mantra for me in these races, stamina, going; handicap mark as the key considerations.

 

If we look at the runners in broadly market order.

 

History of Fashion from the Fahy yard in Ireland has been well backed, I guess it's that time of the year when any Irish horse is considered an handicap blot and too many discount the ability of British Chasers to beat them. The horse is completely untested and unexposed beyond 3 miles, on pure form analysis it's hard to understand the price, it may well be its been prepared for this race from a while back but I am more than keen to take it on and take it on the chin if it hoses home. If it was as good as the market suggests I don't think it would be blowing cover here in this way.

 

Win My Wings for Christian Williams is a winner over 3 miles and 2 furlongs on good ground off a mark of 123, it runs off 132 and they go for cheek-pieces, you'd assume to calm the horse down and protect energy, a bit too short in the market on that basis for me. Eclair Surf for Emma Lavelle is a big danger I think to my ultimate selections, having won impressively over 3 miles and 5 furlongs at Warwick last time, it's up 10lbs for that and into unknown territory regards stamina but a yard and a horse to fear. Dannilo D'Avry for Robert Bevis is a good horse from a small yard who would be a popular winner, its best effort though is off a mark of 105 in a Class 4 race at Ffos Llas and over 3 miles 1 and a half furlongs, I just don't get the price on that basis as any sort of value?

 

Court Master is talented but quirky for Michael Scudamore and this is its first run beyond 3 miles and 2 furlongs, Rath An Iuir is completely unexposed and runs for a yard I rate very highly (Rose Dobbin), its had 1 run in 18 months after impressing over 3 miles, it would be an incredible Training performance to win this on this basis, not impossible but logic defying I'd suggest. Domaine De Lisle has best form at 3 miles 2 furlongs, its upped a mile and runs off a winning mark with 7lbs claimed off it, I think it's one of those unexposed at the trip who could run a big race and a danger on that basis to my selections.

 

Checkitout for the Twistons has winning for up to 3 miles and 3 furlongs but I just don't think quite good enough on that form to take this, LAKE VIEW LAD for the Alexander Team gets 4 miles on Good ground and wasn't stopping in the Scottish National off a mark of 155 a while back, it gets in here off a mark of 142 and has a Course win to boot. It's one that therefore ticks all the right boxes for me. Just Your Type for the Longsdon yard last won over 26 furlongs in November 2020 off a mark of 128, ran OK in this in 2019 and would have a decent chance of running an enhanced place on best form.

 

Achille for Venetia is probably the one I fear most outside of my selections, a yard I simply can't get right and horse who is inconsistent with a capital I, it seems on occasions to need 5 miles and if one of the selections was a non runner would be my reserve and if you want a bit of shrapnel on it I would not put you off. CASH TO ASH is one I definitely want a few quid on though. Mark Walfords horse is admirably consistent, deserves to win a race, has form from 3 miles up to 4 miles and has to have a solid each way chance and I feel this is his target race for the season. Potters Corner may be the unluckiest horse in training that Covid came when it did, winner of the 2019 Midlands and Welsh Nationals and cruelly denied a chance at the 2020 Grand National although it won the virtual edition tipped by us at 25/1 I recall, it clearly ticks every box but the ink may now be fading if you'll excuse the pun. Not totally discounted and we hope for a safe passage. Brave Eagle will have the Henderson followers money on it and would be frankly a surprise winner, its last win was in 2019 over 26 furlongs off a mark of 152, it gets a nice mark here and would be some training performance if it won and probably warrant a few bottles of gin being consumed tonight at Chateau Henerson.

 

INNISFREE LAD is a big price but under-rated in my eyes in the context of the race. Its run well at 4 miles at Kelso, and a win at Plumpton off 127 has rather spoilt its mark but I can see it plodding round at big Odds and coming home so a small shrapnel bet for me. The most exciting one for me is actually the rag of the market, GWENCILLY BERBAS was disappointing last time over 3 miles but prior to that finished strong and impressively up the hill at Exeter over 3 miles and 6 furlongs on Good to Soft off a mark of 124. This is a flatter track but 2 circuits round Exeter and twice up that hill should more than put this trip in to range and I'm intrigued that they come here and have a bash. The market totally disagrees with me but I'll be frankly disappointed if this one isn't in the first 4 home!

 

TRACKERS - Lake View Lad + Cash To Ash / shrapnel on Gwencily Berbas + Innisfree Lad (reserve Achille)

In Ireland at FAIRYHOUSE in the 3.08 Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles and 4 furlongs Sean is keen on CAPALINO BRIDGE and TUCANAE at nice each way Odds and suggests a shrapnel bet on both horses. 

 

Elliott has a strong favourite at very short odds, De bromhead runs a pair to track onwards off breaks of 300 plus days who may need the run but very much worth following, Damalisque is one to track too but probably needs to come below a mark of 130 and Scoir Mear / Festival D'Ex and Enniskerry are in the Tracker but not suggested for investment today (see below).

 

In the 3.43 at FAIRYHOUSE he is very keen on ASKANN at a nice each way price and optimum conditions and a small shrapnel bet on something of a cliff horse for us in SWEET STING very much though in last chance saloon. Prince Zaltar and Excelsior are in the Tracker but not suggested for investment for today. (see below)