A few initial thoughts. The ground as we saw yesterday is quite tacky but there is quite a strong headwind expected, that will dry the ground out even more but will make it a genuine test of stamina down the home straight. They have hd no substantial rain for 3 weeks allegedly.

 

A number of these are unproven fully at 3 miles and a few may be wanting to protect handicap marks for Cheltenham, others may need a few pounds to get in to Cheltenham or Aintree and most pertinent; there is automatic qualification for a Grand National Entry by finishing in the first 4 here and that's something to keep a very close eye on.

 

We'll look at the market from the bottom up.

 

Some Chaos won on seasonal debut off a 173 day break, had a wind operation prior to that, is still a few pounds above that wind mark and Pulled Up twice since but best form is on "Good" ground. Rocco was the surprise winner of the Badger Beers Chase at Wincanton, I'm not sure how good a piece of form that is, it gets its Going again today and could run a decent race. Nuts Well is top weight, never been beyond 2 and a half miles but is apparently in rude health and schooled very well. Windsor Avenue never traveled at Wetherby last time out and these races are all about rhythm, on overall form I just don't think its good enough in this Class, one to watch if dropping in to calmer waters you'd feel.

 

Janika has been talked up by a few wise sages and I can understand why. It's not won since november 2019 but has glimmers of form like a 5th in the 2021 Coral Cup at Cheltenham. I'm not sure about this trip and I think this is a quiet prep run for a similar tilt at Cheltenham again and this would put it spot on fitness wise. HILL SIXTEEN was Pulled Up and not given a hard race in the Welsh National after an runner up run at Aintree in The Beecher Chase. It's got proven stamina, gets its ground and will be eyeing a National Entry I'm sure, IF and (if is the key word) the Aintree Hill Sixteen turns up he can run a place at least and my feelings are they will be desperate to finish in the first 4 to give them that option.

 

GRAND SANCY for PFN was Pulled Up last time when it hated the right handed course at Ascot. PFN has said it will never run right handed again. It may be significant that Bryony comes here rather than to Cheltenham and to ride this horse. It's one that has long had potential, not really delivered although 4th of 13 at Newbury earlier in the season is solid enough. I'm not sure what the targets are but I think they are here to try to win.

 

Cloudy Glen for the in-form combo of Venetia and Deutsch (who is riding out of his skin at the minute) are big dangers, it won the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury off 140 on seasonal debut at Newbury but then pulled Up at Wetherby. I think it's being aimed at The Kim Muir at Cheltenham and like Janika may not want to spaff a handicap mark. A big danger and one I fear and just left off final shortlist.

 

CANELO is another who has promised more than it's delivered. It ran in the Grand National last year and you'd think that was the aim again. Its got Distance winning form off a mark of 142, has a Course win too and drops to a mark of 137. It's not in great form but that carrot of a first 4 finish and another tilt at the GN suggests Alan King will have it as fit as he can. Midnight Shadow tries 3 miles, doesn't seem to be crying out for it and loves a few furlongs less and loves Cheltenham more. Will surely be aimed at the Festival and the Trainer Sue Smith can plot one there form a long way off. I'd suggest it'll have a great blow here until the last couple of furlongs and then be eased when chance has gone and be protecting an already inflated mark and trying to get a few pounds off it.

 

Storm Control returned to form at Newbury last time, it was 5th in the Kim Muir last year, gets a 5lbs penalty for last time out win, I think it gets in the Kim Muir again off this mark and won't want to risk another hefty hike so like Midnight Shadow I think it'll run to its merits but not be flogged to the line once the chance has gone. "Tactics!". Hurricane Harvey also ran well in the Badger beer behind Rocco has a Course win and Distance win off 139, runs off 132 and should run a nice race and one I think who is here to win but just misses my final cut. Demachine like Storm Control runs for Kerry Lee, is certainly one of the less exposed and the form of a 5th place at Newbury is infinitely better than being Pulled Up at Ludlow last time, it's the potential that worries me but I'm not sure it's great value at the price but one that worries me a lot! Debece is one of the unluckiest horses in Training, at times early on you could see the potential of the next Denman, a tank of a horse who has been increasingly fragile. It makes seasonal debut, if the ability remains it could hose up and we'll never know what the horse may have achieved had it been with a Nicholls or a Skelton earlier. It would be great to see him win or place and fingers crossed he (and all the others) come home safe and sound.

 

KAPCORSE was very impressive last time out winning off a break and is another fragile horse. They want to run in the National. know they have to finish in the first 4 here to get in and the fragility of the horse suggests they can't find another race somewhere else between now and then. I don;t see it as a Cheltenham horse, it is up 8lbs but for me the pick of the race knowing what it has to achieve. Cap Du Nord for Christian Williams was placed here last year, has been mostly poor since, runs off a nice mark and the Yard have been a revelation this last season or so but I don't think it's great value. Fusil Raffles was the winner of the Charlie Hall, granted a fortuitous win but you have to finish races to win them and I think the horse should not be tarnished by good fortune. It's got an entry in the RyanAir at Cheltenham and I think this is a prep run for that and although feared I think others are better value.

 

 

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A couple of interesting Handicaps at Fairyhouse.

 

 

School Lane and Exciting oscar will be tough nuts to crack and at the other end of the market both Flysini who has won for us when tipped before but who I think will still need this run before coming right back on to my radar and Sizing Malbay who continues to disappoint, needs the right trip and I'm not sure that this is it are ones to keep an eye on.

 

GLEN AVA is in the Tracker, has got Blinkers back on and has to be worth an investment and on this Inner Track it always pays to look for Course specialists. Although thoroughly exposed and a veteran now all the best form of VODKA SOCIETY is round this trappy Course and the booking of Jordan Gainford suggests they fancy another strong run here and on some solid correlating form another one who runs well here is LAUGHING TRIX who could do with being a few pounds less but could run an enhanced place at nice Odds.

 

 

 

Fiveaftermidnight is an interesting one, very inconsistent but is due a big run and there is enough in the form to warrant a small investment. QUAKER ISLAND won a Wexford Maiden under similar conditions and in the form of rivals does look to be on a decent Handicap mark. They turn to cheek-pieces and I'll be disappointed if it's not placed at least.

 

Lord Lariat and Paddys Planet are clearly the ones to beat but I think Fiveaftermidnight and Quaker Island are good value.   

 

Young Dev is in the Tracker off top weight, has a squeak but the Going might be a bit too lively for him today.