This is likely to turn into a slog as despite the fact the ground is barely used there is a fair bit of rain about on Going already described as soft.

 

We'll all be aware that these are unique fences that take some jumping, the deterioration in the going should at least stop them going off too fast so proven stamina, a good solid jumping profile and Course form are big assets to have here as well as form in soft/heavy conditions.

 

I narrowed the 22 down to a short list of 5, which I'll come to but first lets whittle through some who missed the final list but who may in my opinion be seen to better effect later in the season.

 

I think the favourite Snow Leopardess is too short in the market for one with so little big race experience however progressive the form looks and am happy to take it on.Mac Tottie too from the Bowen yard seems short to me, clearly can jump round here for 1 circuit as when winning The Grand Sefton but the extra trip and the more wintery conditions put me off it today, although it's a Yard we never seem to fathom, does anyone?

 

Chris's Dream makes a seasonal debut for Henry De Bromhead, it was going well in the Grand National when unseating and I'm sure that's the ultimate target for this season again, will come on for the run but I doubt they'd want to bottom the horse out first time up. Cobolobo also makes seasonal debut and was impressive particularly at Exater last season, it's definitely one to track onwards and could run well here today but not quite making the shortlist. Domaine De LiIsle may reward those looking for something with big odds with a bold run for a long way and Hogans Height too has some merit with Course form over the shorter Sefton trip.

 

Lord Du Mesnil is a mudlark who narrowly missed the final cut, it's had 2 Course runs one of which was too short and one on Going that was too quick, it's been off for 195 days and i think had it had a run it may have been a selection, it's one of those nagging ones that I hope doesn't come back to bit me! I think Mighty Thunder is being aimed at the Spring and not this race and Tout Et Permis is a bit like Lord Du Mesnil who could run a big race too. 

 

My final 5 included Achille who has proven stamina, loves the mud and who runs very well fresh with runner up efforts on seasonal debut off 261; 223 and 427 days, he'd be the 4th pick of the 5 and worth some shrapnel if you want to go beyond the main 3 picks. He just shades Didero Vallis who has Course form but i'm just in a bit of doubt about the trip with this one although it has won at it and on heavy and jumped round here twice already, another for some shrapnel if you wish.

 

My main three though were all significant factors in the race last year and all look primed again to my eyes.

 

VIEUX LION ROUGE hosed up last year, won by 24 lengths and carries just 5lbs more this time, it's had a run, had previous Course form before last year and although a year older should give a bold account with luck in running, what beats it wins but I think 2 will beat it today.

 

KIMBERLITE CANDY will appreciate every yard and may need more, conditions have come for it though and was runner up on seasonal debut in 2019 and 2020 and I see it placed at least again here with luck in running. They clearly know how to prime it for the day and hopefully can do so again.

 

My top pick though is LE BRUEIL who was running very well last year in this race until making a bad error 4 out. The fact it re-composed itself and ran on into 4th place was significant. It can go better with a clear round and has won over nearly 4 miles up the hill at Cheltenham so lacks nothing for stamina nor guts.