A minefield as always and with multiple entries from Mullins and Elliott a tough one to call. My gut thoughts are that Mullins is running a number on seasonal debut including Carefully Selected off a 1022 day break, whilst you can't rule anything out from his Yard, I think that all of them will do better later in the season. Elliott has an opposite spin I feel with mostly exposed types and we know they can pop up at any time, and I'd never put anyone off a bit of shrapnel on the likes of Death Duty, Defi Bleu and Battleoverdoyen at nice prices in that order of preference.

 

Let's focus on some notable horses from other Yards.

 

Panda Bay is the talking horse and if you hear the talk is a strong contender, I'm not overly convinced. Donkey Years holds solid claims but may just be at the limit off this mark and at this trip in a fast paced race. 

 

I'm the sweetest of all on a couple, and they are FARCEUR DU LARGE and AIN'T THAT A SHAME. Farceur Du Large has done all asked of it to date it has a bit of stamina to prove but has more than a touch of class. Ain't That A Shame gets a 7lbs penalty but Henry De Bromhead is unusually positive and Ms Blackmore is a dab hand at riding winners in these big races. 

 

I then was left with a list of 5 that I found it VERY difficult to rule out, so I will list them in preference order for those that want shrapnel bets as I can't confidently split them and as it's a huge betting heat will leave you to decide exactly how exposed you feel comfortable being. ! 

 

In order of preference and taking some at very nice e/w odds in to account in terms of value, WESTERN ZARA sits on a lovely weight, has proven stamina and so far overlooked by the market, GABBYS CROSS is the notional second string for HDB but also looks over-priced, Peter Carberry picks up a lovely spare ride. ENJOY'D'ALLEN was 3rd in this last year has been quietly prepared over Hurdles and has a solid place chance again, FOXY JACKS also ran well in this race last year off a similar mark when you take in to account an excellent 7lbs Claimer and is another who has every chance of an enhanced place and finally DIOL KER who won impressively at Naas off a mark of 137 and off 145 with another good Claimer taking 5lbs off, could return to form after a disappointing effort last time out.

 

TRACKERS - Farceur Du Large + Ain't That A Shame - - see notes above for shrapnel bets in preference order

 

I'm also really sweet on the each way chances of THE BIG DOG in the Welsh National, I'm not overly concerned he was Pulled Up in this race last year as he's markedly better and more progressive now and the fact they feel confident to go over and attack the race speaks volumes for their confidence with other options by-passed this week at home.