TROYTOWN - Navan 1.35 - 3 miles - Handicap Chase - 22 run (3 reserves) - Going is soft with a few showers.

 

I'll start again with Gordon Elliott, who including reserves has 11 of the 25 runner field.

 

As I mentioned last time, many look rank out of form, many are on seasonal debut, he is a magician with horses fit and ready to win first time out and is also adept at readying one to run a stormer at BIG Odds when seemingly totally lost at the game. I will always try to highlight a couple in a race like this who could spring a surprise at huge Odds from the yard and elsewhere and I'm really talking at something like £1 each way to cover stakes and a fun bet. Of the bigger priced Elliott runners today I think ROARING BULL @ 33/1 is probably the best value, it may be being primed i think for something over Christmas but one to keep an eye on and have a small dabble today. Elsewhere I think the Dempseys may get a run much better than the odds suggest with MR DIABLO @ 40/1 and with odds often extended to 6th and sometimes 7th in these Sunday handicaps, a strategy we will repeat and try to find a biggie every now and again.

 

So, on to the main analysis and selections and the quandry about something progressive and possibly on seasonal debut or something fit, in form and off a mark that gives it a sporting chance. Today I feel a lot more comfortable siding with the latter , so lets delve deeper.

 

Of those coming off a break, Death Duty is a bit of a "talking horse" amongst so in the know Elliott watchers. Now half of Ireland will tell you they are "In the know" in reality, very few are and I believe I know a few of them. The rest frankly are just chancers. I'm told they like this horse a lot, he's fit enough, as for the trip, they are seeking to find out today. For that reason, I fear him as a big danger but won't pick him. Elwood is another with a very similar profile from the Yard and equally well thought of, another in the "could be anything bracket" and I'm prepared to take this one on too and will just have to accept it if he or the other one scoot home. He does have up to 11 arrows after all!

 

AFOREMENTIONED won nicely last time, in fact is on a treble, he's up 9lbs, clearly in form and progressive and very very dangerous, am I a heretic for not tipping him, well I think I have found a few coming out of his last race who are perfectly capable of turning the tables today given that 9lbs penalty.

 

Let's look at the final list of 6 which I took a long time to whittle down. I will just leave out today FORZA MILAN a lovely battling horse who I will come back to in other races I'm sure , absolutely conclusive form at the trip and the tendency to miss one regularly just put me off. DISCORDANTLY is up 10lbs for a nice win last time, and my niggle is again a fast run race at this trip and also I'm not sure it's 10lbs better than that last run suggests. Both are real dangers but I'll take them on.

 

So on to my selections.

 

FITZHENRY was runner up in this last year and I think "laid out for this race"...runner up off 134 last year, then ran a blinder over Christmas at Leopardstown off 137, has been in my Tracker for this ever since, and I was pleased to see a quiet warm up in a Hurdle race a few weeks back. I'm prepared now to say I think this horse will WIN one of the 2 races it finished runner up in last year and off a mark of 141 I will be bitterly disappointed if with a clear round it's not in the first 4-5 home.

 

The race won by Aforementioned last time throws up SCOIR MEAR a Course and Distance winner here and gets in off effectively level weights for a 10 length defeat giving 11lbs last time. The horse is absolutely fit and provided it's not had too many runs recently that Course and Distance form is very compelling. PORTMORE LOUGH was runner up in that same race (The Munster National) and also gets a nice pull, was 3rd in this race last year and another with the Course and Distance form to be very competitive again. Finally, MOYHENNA who was 4th in the Munster National beaten 9 lengths giving a whopping 24lbs, is 13 lbs better off here and 5lbs better off with Soir Mear and another cherry fit.

 

Of course, there is always a danger if you go down formlines of one race you can pick the wrong one, but I think it's solid form and fitness and Course form should play a part here.

 

 

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In the 3.50 race, a competitive Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles and 6 furlongs, last years winner THEATRE WORLD, returns to Hurdles from fences, looks nicely weighted and could outrun generous Odds to enhanced place offers.