Navan 1.07 - Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 15 run - Soft (likely to be very dead / pudding like Going)

 

I can't get over-enthused about the top of the market in these conditions, Drop The Anchor doesn't tick any of the boxes in terms of trip and going, Lucky Max has an 8 lbs penalty, Rebel Ivy has been off for 90 days off a high mark and HMS Seahorse makes seasonal debut in Conditions that don't look ideal.

 

That may open up the chances of CARRIGEEN LOTUS who is back at the right level here, needed seasonal debut run and will come on for it and has ideal trip and Going and just 10 stones to carry.

 

Elliott runs a couple in Au Fleuron a Course winner in Good ground but yet to convince in this sort of Going and Grand Roi who shoulders top weight but who may be anchored by it in the mud. Mullins runs Belle Metal who was pulled Up distressed last time and reported to be coughing. I'd like to see more from this one before investing.

 

I'm not sure about stamina nor the handicap mark for Bois De Clamont today, Spyglass Hill hasn't won over hurdles in years but one who could run a big race is The Little Yank, he just missed out on an investment as it has some solid Hurdles form but a crashing fall over Fences last time may just have dented confidence.

 

The other pair I do like are JIVING JERRY who gets further than this in the mud and stamina will be a massive factor surely and who has some decent Course form and at big odds LEGACY THOR who had a Course and Distance win off a mark of 116 before 2 years off injured and who shaped better last time on second run back and a mark of 118 at the Odds looks worth a small investment

 

TIP - Cariggeen Lots / Tracker - Jiving Jerry / shrapnel - Legacy Thor

 

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SEAN - Navan 1.42 Handicap Hurdle - 19 run - Soft

 

This race doesn't look as deep in terms of quality with a lot of them unproven at the trip and in the going and likely to struggle.

 

I'm less convinced about Pure Sirloin and Go Boy (who could be anything) than I am about INDIE BELLE and of those at shorter prices, who also include Elliotts Miss Paisely, I think INDIE BELLE is the one best suited by conditions with wins at Tramore and Punchestown with the mud flying at this sort of trip.

 

I'd have Going concerns about the progressive Penny Jar who may now be at a handicap mark ceiling, Hide Out could be showing signs of returning to form but there are mixed stamina messages I think. 

 

I think that HUIT REFLETS who fell at the first in a Chase last week but who runs off a nice Handicap mark in ideal conditions, CARRIG CATHAL who has had injury issues but has shown some ability still remains and the enigmatic COURTING VICKIE who is likely to plod on longer than most are the most likely to fill enhanced places in this real test of guts and stamina. A bold run from Kingfisher Lane wouldn't be a massive surprise but again I'm wary about the mud!

 

TIP - Indie Belle / Tracker - Huits Reflets / shrapnel - Carrig Cathal + Courting Vickie

 

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SEAN - Navan 3.27 Handicap Chase - 3 miles - 14 run

 

This could be a real test of stamina and not a pretty watch.

 

The likes of the wonderful Spancil Hill are always better supported at 33/1 in better races than at 3/1 in a lesser race I feel. Sanibel Island may not appreciate a slog in this mud, Legacy of Dreams makes Chase debut under rules after a long P2P career. DIEGOS WAY who has run some good races recently in the Mainland at Bangor and Hereford looks the safest proposition at the top end of the market.

 

THREE LOUD KNOCKS and LAKEFIELD LEGACY have won in mud at extended trips so if sent out to finish may plod round and grab some place money, it's that sort of day and that sort of race. 

 

Sound money was a very nice prospect before a 3 year injury break and has had one run back and would be interesting going forwards if showing any signs of that old form.

 

At a big price and probably the most likely of the rest is DEFINITELY DARSI who has won a 3 mile P2P in soft Going.

 

TIP - Diegos Way / Trackers - Three Loud Knocks + Lakefield Legacy - Shrapnel - Definitely Darcy