Sean - Punchestown Monday 30th January
Punchestown 3.42 - Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 4 and 1/2 furlongs - 22 run - Soft
A lot of unknowns here in terms of verifiable form and form at the trip but a couple in the Tracker who look to have excellent chances.
At the top end of the market both Fox Le Bei and Thefaithfulindian look very short for actually proven form, the market may be right but I'm happy to take them both on.
Of the remainder, I'd not be surprised to see decent runs from Red Finch and Monoxide who have both shown glimmers of potential and whose jockey bookings suggest they may have something tangible to deliver today, Rose of Kalanisi and American Money are the only others who really have anything like credible form and may also outrun their Odds. There may be a few lurking as "handicap bandits" but I can't see anything obvious.
The 2 Trackers both have very good solid provable form in the context of the race, the veteran GLENABO BRIDGE regularly runs just out of the money but in a solid way in better races than this in terms of depth and would have an excellent chance off a mark of 83, below last win mark and with so much experience the others lack. LITTLE TOKEN has been pulled up the last twice but ran OK until tiring, should now be fit enough to run to its merits and is back to a winning mark of 91 and has placed off a mark of 93. Really no excuses for it not to run in to a place at least here on that not too distant form.
TRACKERS - Glenabo Bridge + Little Token
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Punchestown 4.17 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles - 20 run - Soft
This race is a bit deeper in terms of quality and depth of the form.
Fortunate Lady is currently near Odds On and is upped in trip and clearly the one to beat but at that price I'm leaving well alone. It's hard to fathom the 7/2 about Rochestown, clearly somebody knows something, or thinks they do, but on form so far, it's not one I could back with confidence.
Two For The Road returns off a 3 month break but ran very well off an elongated break prior to that and will be a big danger if repeating that form. Morrie In D Quarry is subject to significant market movement and is another where the form simply doesn't stack up to the price drop on it. Diamond Grove has clearly had training issues but has shown potential on a few occasions and one I'll be Tracking forwards after today.
Imperial Kate IS in the Tracker but has so far been better over shorter, a run over 2 miles and 5 furlongs suggests this is worth a try and we'll continue to Track and hope that it doesn't go and win today, on the balance of form a few others caught my eye a little more.
The other Tracker horse is ESTHERS MARVEL who looks to have an excellent chance here, unfortunate to be hampered when unseating last time when tipped, was placed in the two runs prior to that and is below its last winning mark. I can't find any reason not to tip it again here.
KILLINURE LASS has a Distance win and is back to a nice mark it probably needs better ground but its been drying days recently and dry again today and it's hard to ignore the form credentials, OCONDANGO BOY improved when upped to this sort of trip last time and should again be very competitive. The other pair you cant totally rule out are THEGOAHEADMAN who has always struck me as a horse who needed this trip and who may now deliver at it and of course the wonderfully inconsistent Courting Vickie, who is probably better over shorter but always worth a quid e/w at double figure Odds.
TIP - Esthers Marvel / Tracker - Killinure Lass + Ocodango Boy / shrapnel - The Goaheadman