A decent competitive race for lower Grade horses and the trip and Going certainly weed out the form of a lot of them.

 

A few would be big dangers if fitness was assured, but I can't see any obvious reason why So Mo Loach; Difficult Decision and Unexpected Depth, won't significantly improve for th run on seasonal debut or after a break. All are possible future winners once fit and ones to track after today. Hopefully one doesn't pop up to spoil that strategy and planning.

 

Ask Heather has bits of form that give it a chance but a hore we seem to say that about every time it runs. The pair who look strongest are ROCKYS SILVER who is in form, a competent Hurdler and off a very competitive Hurdles mark. I prefer that of those at the top end of the market to SASSY BUT CLASSY whose win last time was in a very strangely run race and although a big danger I don't think such a patchy run in this field would suffice. Lee Valley Legacy is another old favourite of ours, ran better last time but can't see the value here today.

 

I do prefer the scope of the Elliott second string DESIRE DE JOIE who won a 3 mile Hurdle at Sligo off 118, placed here in heavy and with a nice P2P background for stamina lines. I think it's not harshly treated off a mark of 117 and should place at least with luck in running. The other one who I think will find conditions perfect is TOKYO GETAWAY a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 110, placed off 118 in a Hurdle race at Limerick since, switches from Hurdles to Chases with apparent ease and another with that P2P stamina in its back cv. 120 is not a great handicap mark but not a "stopper" either in these conditions.

 

Exciting Oscar the 1st Reserve will be a big danger with a run and I think for those able to watch that's the only option - small stake if it runs if you want to cover it's obvious chance.

 

------

 

A trappy race where hard to rule too much out or to be completely confident about anything specific but value in a few.

 

I really want to take on the top 3-4 in the market in these conditions provided they are genuinely heavy. If they are then I think the one with the most complete profile is HOKE COLBURN. A horse who is exposed in terms of form but solid when conditions are right. Placed last twice it has encountered Heavy Going off marks of 106 and 107, proven stamina and 109 gives it a good sporting chance in this tight contest.

 

Chosen Hour will be a big danger back Chasing, two Hurdle runs will have put it right fitness wise but niggle about the Going if it is heavy. 

 

The value in terms of a horse with scope is definitely NICCOLAI from the De Bromhead / Blackmore combo and after a seasonal debut desperately needed it should strip fitter today and this ex 3 mile P2P horse really could be in the "anything" category. At the price I'll have a small wager on it. I can't resist a small wager either on the rag of the market ENDURING LOVE who is always dangerous in attritional conditions off marks in the mid 80's, if it gets in to a nice rhythm a mark of 90 gives it a shout and the 25/1 in a 12 runner field with not a lot of proven form in mud is not something I can resist.