NAVAN 2.30 Troytown Chase Handicap Chase 3 miles - 23 run

 

First the slight warning that this is one race I can't recall tipping/backing the winner of, I may have done but not one I feel totally comfortable about.

 

As a result I will have a full point TIP and a couple of 1/2 point Trackers although my confidence in all 3 is solid after a lot of form analysis.

 

I think those at or near the top of the market have obvious chances but at prices under 10/1 dont represent great value in my mind.

 

So I have looked at and fear the likes of Chris's Dream (niggle is the 208 days off), Discorama (about whom I'm not 100% sure this is right trip on a tough galloping track and uphill finish), Ravenhill (again not totally convinced about the trip on this Course); Shady Operator (obvious chance but % call is not great value); Portmore Lough (another with solid credentials but trying trip for the first time); Tower Bridge (again the trip is a niggle and want to watch and track on).

 

That leaves me with a list of 5 and I will discount Winter Escape whose 3 wins last season were impressive but I'm not sure up to this and may be better over a bit shorter.. I will also leave off the final lsit of 3, Mr Diablo, runner up at 50/1 last year which is my kind of price but not had prep run this time, if you have a bit of shrapnel on anything other than tip/tracker, may be this one!

 

So the TIP...is YOUNG PADDYMC - I tipped last time in race won by Tracker The Gatechecker and it was surprisingly Pulled Up. I've watched the race over and over and i just feel one of those days when it did not like the Track, never got in to a rhythm and just didn't perform. Horses are not machines and the previous form of this progressive horse here (runner up off 116 over course and Distance) and runs off 122 here but a better horse overall now gives me confidence of a big run at a nice price.

 

The Trackers are FITZHENRY who has the benefit of a run, Geraghty rides, whether that is the asset it once was is open to debate but we'll leave that hanging for now, runner up over Course and Distance in 2018, off a nice mark and always looked like it could win one of these on the right day. OSCAR KNIGHT also has a Course win, Thomas Mullins trains and his 3rd place in The Munster National off a mark of 131 makes 130 today look very solid handicap mark and another whose turn you just feel is near.

TIP (1 point e/w) is YOUNG PADDYMC and TRACKERS (1/2 point e/w) are FITZHENRY + OSCAR KNIGHT  

 

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In the 3.00 - Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles and 6 furlongs

 

The one who really jumps off the page as each way value here is RUSSIAN BILL, ticks all the right boxes for me trip, going; fitness and although a shade higher than last winning handicap mark the 7lbs Claimer off 116 puts him bang on that last win mark and has run well, won and placed off higher marks and horses know how and experience may take him a long way here.

 

TIP (1 point e/w) - RUSSIAN BILL