This is a very tricky race with so many seemingly out of form or hiding handicap marks or both?

 

Having looked at every runner there are only a couple I think you could have a small wager on with any confidence and a third whose past form is so ahead of the others in context of the race that any kind of a return to form would make it a serious contender.

 

TEN TEN needed its first run of the season and will come on for it. The drop in trip looks a sensible move based on the visual evidence of it not quite getting a truly run 3 miles and I expect a much better run here.

 

REBEL GOLD usually travels well in its races and it's collateral form suddenly starts to read very well and it looks ready to step up and find a nice race to win.

 

I'll be disappointed if both of those don't win place money at the very least.

 

At big Odds, justified by recent form it is notable that Davy Russell sticks with SAMCRO but this is the right trip and a reduced mark should give it every chance if Russell can just coax it to put its best foot forward once again.

 

 

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This is a cracking puzzle to solve.

 

Cask Mate and Carrera head the market and understandably why but neither look bomb proof by any stretch of the imagination.

 

You'll need a lot of luck in running here and it will be important to hold a prominent position or to get a safe passage over the top from off the pace, big field experience will be a help.

 

I'd have been much keener on Visionarian and Gua Du Large but for the rain and whilst both have very strong chances I'd have preferred Yielding or drier. Coltor as an ex Flat horse, still very proficient in that sphere is another whose chance may be on better ground, it needed a seasonal debut and the form of its 5th in the Boodles reads well and one to keep a close eye on if the big Festival handicap races later on are run Good Going. Inn From the Cold is a lesser light but another from the Flat who could pick up a race on better Going.

 

At bigger Odds I'm reluctant to leave out Lucky Max whose Lingfield run can probably be ignored on account of the awful Going and possibly not suited by the trip over but whose Cork win prior to that was very promising and also CALL ME LYREEN who has not lived up to early promise and will have needed its seasonal debut but who is now very much in the "put up or shut up" phase and the type from the Yard that can suddenly click!

 

At the prices I'm most confident about BALLYADAM and SEA DUCOR. Ballyadam is potentially well handicapped, has some solid Course form and the booking of Aiden Coleman is intriguing.  SEA DUCOR is another who will strip a lot fitter for its seasonal debut, looks targeted at the race and has been in with some very good horses and looks ready to strike and win a nice prize.

 

There are 3 others that just rated better with me than CALL ME LYREEN and have more substantive recent form so just get the vote for some arrows at the enhanced places widely available.

 

MIGHTY TOM is an improving type who won nicely at Thurles off a mark of 124, having studied that run and the nature of it I don't think 8lbs is a debilitating rise and with continued improvement the horse would have a nice each way chance of some place money at big Odds. GET MY DRIFT from Mouse Morris's yard also looks primed and aimed at this race. A Course winner in soft means yesterdays rain will have come at the right time and the booking of Mark Walsh boosts my confidence. SURPRISE PACKAGE may be exactly that and aptly named. Its one of a number from the Fahey yard and looks to have a solid chance of outrunning generous odds with a Course and Distance win in its locker off a mark of 128, a mark of 130 looks very competitive and having won at 2 and a half miles can certainly aim to pick up and run down a lot of these 2 milers off a fast pace and hopefully come late and pick up some nice e/w profit for us.