Thurles 1.00
THURLES 1.00 Handicap Chase - 3 miles 1 furlong - 14 run - Soft (dry and clear day forecast)
A bit of a Course specialist track where they climb in the back straight so it pays to be handy and to set yourself up in a decent position.
The Going is soft but historically an excellent drainage / drying system here and likely to be genuinely soft winter Going and no excuses I can find for anything not handling it.
I can leave the top 2 in the market alone and feel confident and comfortable in doing so, if either WARREEDY who won a Chase off 71 and then Hurdles off 81 and 86, can win off 88 here at 5/2 then fair play to him, and FOX LE BAI takes a significant step up in trip and I can't find any form to support the price it is. Another who takes a hike in trip is KEY COMMANDER and there is a bit of shrewd money for that one and a tip from The Racing Posts Irish race analyser, but I can't see why it would significantly improve. I'll take my chance of all three of those.
Top Question is a P2P winner who should run its race and will be a danger but not an obvious looking winner to me, Ellipsism is VERY intriguing. It's been running at 2 miles and occasionally 2 and a half miles, but it won over Hurdles in the medium term past at this kind of trip off marks of 90 and 99. A shrewd Yard, and it might be a "christmas turkey" plot job, won't be any surprise if it's very well back later on but the jury is out for me. I might just be over analysing and looking too hard for a "plot". We'll see and I'll take it on the chin if it beats my selections. Another with a squeak is Capture The Drama who won off marks around 106 a few years back and now runs off 89, but a bit of a stretch to see it suddenly popping up.
That leaves me with four and hard to decisively split them.
ASK CORY strikes me as an each way punt to nothing at around 5/1, a winner off 99, runner up but beaten a long way off 106, I think the one to beat so if you want a small covering bet take it.....I will have a small one myself.
I think though that at the prices GETADAY deserves its day in the limelight. Solid at 2miles 4 and 5 furlongs but form of 2nd 5th 4th at this kind of extended trip, Danny Mullins rides and I think the consistency of the horse, which means it's rarely got any help from the handicapper deserves a reward and it's a cracking each way price.
When a horse wins 1 in 49 and you happened to tip it on the day it won (I did! thankfully and remember it quite well) it's one that always pokes your fancy and a good look. LOCH LUATHA is a Course and Distance winner, that win was here on Good Going off a mark of 91, today runs off a mark of 84 and has place runs in to 2nd twice and 4th twice off marks between 83 and 90, so looks a decent each way punt for me again here. To have 2 wins out of 50 and picked the right two, would be something wouldn't it??...
Finally and far more speculative but one I can't resist is DUBAI DEVILS a horse who won at Fairyhouse at this kind of trip off a mark of 100 in February 2019, has worked its way back to a mark of 102 and Paul Stafford does well with a small string and at 33/1 with the capable Adam Short up.....it did kind of jump off the page...
TIP - Getaday / Trackers Loch Luatha + Dubai Devils (saver on Ask Cory)