THE WELSH NATIONAL with which I have gone "back to basics" somewhat with my PLACESPOTTER hat on and done a complete and thorough review of every horse in the race. A field of 20 this year and for once; whilst it will be sure to be a test on Soft Going that is drying, I don't think the usual slog in deep mud, that we have grown used to. That could change the dynamic of the race and hopefully we can follow the right assumptions.

 

I narrowed the field of 20 down to 3 Groups, 8 were discarded on stamina and/or Going concerns and that left me with 4 "longer priced danger" types and 8 from which I think the main contenders will emerge.

 

The 4 dangers I think would all prefer more typical Chepstow conditions but all could stay on in to a place if the pace fractions are wrong and they go off too fast, so the likes of LOOKSLIKEBRIAN who is an improver who may be tested in the Jumping department here; DAWSON CITY always likely to stay on in to enhanced prices at a big price, REGAL FLOW who had a golden Spring and made a pleasing re-appearance and MYSTEREE whose wheels have fallen off in the past 12 months but who is very well handicapped as a result, may be the ones to look at for more "speculative punts".

 

However, as indicated, I think this race will be between the following 8 horses, and as we used to do, I will count them off in reverse order-:

 

JENNYS SURPRISE has been very impressive in a lower Grade, rightfully gets a chance to mix it with the better boys here and could run very well, but I think just a notch too high for now.. BAIE DES ILES has a decent poke on some known form, has scope still and one who I think can pick up a nice prize early in 2019 in this type of race. RAZ DE MAREE won this in 2018, runner up in 2016, that alone makes it a contender BUT conditions may not be attritional enough and form so far this season, not up to last seasons. YALA ENKI looks sure to set a searching test in terms of pace, likely to take them well in to the race and I can see this one in the vanguard until between the final 2 Fences, could "steal it" off the front, but those undulations suit a closer who gets up a head of steam and I think a gallant enhanced place is most likely scenario.

 

The final and top 4-:

 

I just fancy VIEUX LION ROUGE for the 3rd spot over and above FINAL NUDGE the latter runs well fresh, ran well in this last season but always seems to fade very late in races, whether that's a "wind issue" or the lack of that final 1% in a battle I'm not sure, I will play FINAL NUDGE in a 4 horse Tricast perm of sorts with a few random lines including FN. I just prefer the claims on VIEUX LION ROUGE on the day, from an in form Yard and a horse who has always threatened to make in to a very nice top Class Staying Chaser, I think this could be a serious contender here.

 

I anticipate the top 2 with luck in running being PROVEN Stayers, and in VINTAGE CLOUDS and FOLSOM BLUE we have a pair who will get the trip, get farther and who both have some impressive "back form" in this type of race and who look primed to win one and I will be very disappointed if both are not placed at least with a clear round. Twenty runners and a trip north of 3 1/2 miles always needs a bit of "luck in running" and we are certainly due a bit of that.

 

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Over at Leopardstown in The Paddy Power Chase at 3.00pm I will have a small wager on top weight DOUNIKOS who has some decent Course form in better quality field than this. Another horse who has had "wind issues" and I do wonder if another Trainer might have asked a surgeon to reach for the scalpel by now, Elliott seems more reluctant than some to go down that route, but the horse has a "touch of class" and is not at all badly weighted or over-burdened and the Odds of around 40/1 are just too big for me to totally ignore to enhanced place Odds.