SEAN - Gowran Park 2.50 - Thyestes Chase - 3 miles 1 furlong - HEAVY

 

Elliott runs his inevitable hoard and the Going here will be very testing.

 

I've done very well in finding the "right Elliott" horse in the last 3 gig field midweek races of this type this winter, I am not deluded to think that's great tipping, it's down to judgement on the day and a big slice of luck. I strongly suggest in this era of big Yard domination that we stake very sensibly and just look for some value and the joy of hopefully beating the system that allows such scenarios.

 

There are 3 at BIG prices that deserve a quid each way on them and two of those were amongst a group of horses that O'Leary / Gigginstown smuggled out of excellent Yards and in to Elliots care just over a year ago and both of these have abjectly failed to deliver on undoubted form and promise with De Bromhead and Meade respectively since. Clearly ROYAL THIEF and DIOL KER have ability and hopefully at some point some can show it on the Track once again, even better would be IF they returned to where they were taken from before the infinite promise is wasted. To join them for a £1 e/w to enhanced places I would add MACS CHARM who has a good Course record here.

 

Those aside, Angels Down won the Kim Muir last season, no doubt aimed at Cheltenham again and I'm not sure they'll want the horse bottomed out within 7 weeks of a return there nor a handicap hike for winning here, Fakir D'Alene for Elliott is a big danger but not the one of his I'm sweetest on but the one i fear the most i haven't selected from that Yard. Stormy Judge has had 3 hurdle runs since an 18 month break but his form prior to that would rate a danger for a VERY shrewd yard.  

 

Many of the remainder don't really entice me today with a mix of stamina and ground concerns and the view that they won't want to be absolutely bottomed out on the ground at this stage of the season and will likely have a good blow before being pulled up and if the handicapper in the UK or Ireland relents a bit as a result it will be mission accomplished.

 

So, my chosen 3 for 3 shrapnel bets are DUNBOYNE, who I tipped in this race last year at around 25/1 when he was just beaten on the line, I think he's been aimed at a return here and a confident each way selection. FRONTAL ASSAULT is another I tipped in the race last season, he is one of the few consistent runners in the yard in terms of overall form and really deserves a race of this nature, I think this will be a target and after it they'll then reassess targets down the line and he's a nice weight and mark as as a 9 year old just coming to peak. Another 9 year old I like a lot in this race is STREET VALUE who has a good Course record over shorter trips, proven form elsewhere at longer distances than this and another off a nice mark and weight and a good booking possibly for Danny Mullins.

 

Tips (1s) Dunboyne / (2s) Frontal Assault / (3s) Street Value ( £1 e/w suggestions 18 Royal Thief @ 50/1  / 11 Macs Charm @ 33/1 / 8 Diol Ker @ 25/1 )