It's very hard to get away from LIGHT FLICKER who is a Course and Distance winner here and won last time over 3 miles at Market Rasen, it's up to a mark of 102 but is clearly the one they all have to beat.

 

On The Platform steps up to 3 miles and has to prove it can handle this heavier Going but a Tracker horse who should run a big race here. The most likely to beat the favourite may be ONE FOR MAMMA for Matt Shepherd, it ticks every box, trip, going, mark and has a great each way chance.

 

Royal Act at a big price has shown a few glimmers of form but at the big price end of the market the dark horse and worth a close look is NEWBERRY NEW it's won at 2 miles 7 furlongs on heavy Going off a mark of 102, and won in February of this year and placed in March at shorter off marks of 87 and 96 both on heavy Going, it's had a couple of runs but it's preference for mud marks it out as a real threat here off a mark of 90 despite being Pulled Up on last 2 starts.

 

Bignorm too has won and placed on heavy at Leicester it's had the benefit of a run and having proven it can get 2 and a half and 2 and three quarter miles it will be a danger if seeing out this 3 mile trip. DEE STAR for Guy Hanmer can't be discounted either, it has proven form in the mud at up to 4 miles and looks a solid each way option too. 

 

The Bowens run Le Teuer who was Pulled Up on Chase debut but has some compelling Hurdles form at the trip and in mud to add to the confusion.

 

I'm left wanting to have an investment on LIGHT FLICKER and On The Platform yet being far more enthused about the each way prices of DEE STAR and especially NEWBERRY NEW. 

 

So I'll perm tham in a small unit Tricast and have a reverse F/Cast for shrapnel on Light Flicker and On The Platform and will have a WIN bet on Light Flicker and each way money on DEE STAR and NEWBERRY NEW looking for some profit from the race.

 

If that all blows your mind keep it simpler...TIP win on Light Flicker / Tracker each way on Dee Star and shrapnel each way on Newberry New.

 

 

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Another conundrum of a race.

 

The favourite is likely to be Brooksway Fair for the Evan Williams yard, its won a Novice Handicap at Ffos Llas off a mark of 83 and is upped in trip here, feared but I'm happy to take it on as the Course could resemble the Somme by start time and may play in to the hands of more experienced plodders.

 

Marinas Lad is being backed and not for the first time but the sum parts in terms of trip, Going and most definitely handicap mark simply don't add up! There are more genuine dangers in Jungle Prose who is something of a Plumpton specialist and also yet to totally prove it wants Heavy like Uttoxeter can deliver, Sartens Son has won at this kind of trip on Heavy at Bangor On Dee and feared on that basis although this is a very different track, Sound of Music has produced it's best form so rar at 3 miles on heavy but comes off a 283 day break and may need the run on previous seasonal debut evidence.

 

Committee of One for Tom Gretton won at 80/1 in deep mud but that was over a bare 2 miles and takes a big hike in trip here, Hedgebird is frankly very poor,  Lazy Sunday could be seen to be a very progressive horse in comparison to most of these and has to be a danger on that basis but both the trip and the underfoot conditions are complete unknown quantities. Mercian Knight has some decent back form, runs again back over Hurdles for Amy Murphy and is part of the Racing to Profit Syndicate that some of you will be aware of and a few of you may be involved with, it's not without a chance of a place at least if finding some of the form it has had in the past and we wish it all the best for connections.

 

I'm left though with a pair who tick the right boxes and probably have the best chance they have of picking up a win for a fair while, their chances may be near!

AUENWIRBEL has had a couple of runs so should be running now into form and race fitness. Its won on heavy, placed at the trip and should give us a great spin off a mark of 87. my only niggle is that it may be prone to a better finisher and that may be DR DES a Course and Distance winner for the Bowens, it's proven at the trip, in the Going and they reach for a Visor for the first time to add to a tongue tie and that may just be the final piece of the jigsaw to get back in to the winners enclosure.