Another tricky one to solve and I was left with a short short list of 4 from which I will have 3 pokes in the race.

 

A host were considered including Aurora Thunder who is very consistent but may be in just a bit too deep here, Elvis Mail is very interesting too, may be on a very nice mark but I'm unsure of the best trip for this one. Martinhal has been off for 260 days and may be one to follow closely after today's run, Pounding Poet too is progressive, the less said about the jockey the better but it has no course form so I'll watch it today.

 

Straw Fan Jack has some Course and Distance form but i think conditions have turned against it today, Alberts Back has a sporting chance. Tamar Bridge the short priced favourite could frankly be anything and is the one they all have to beat but in what could be deep mud I'll be happy to take it on and also the second favourite Midnight River from the Skeltons whose jumping left a lot to be desired last time when all confidence seemed to ebb away.

 

Of the ones near the top of the market I most like STORM NELSON that was 4th in my short list and having won it's last 3 races off 99 / 110 and 117 and won twice on seasonal debut; should be a real danger.

 

There are 3 though that stand out in terms of value and formlines.

 

KATESON would be my 3rd pick, a Course and Distance winner who won this off the same mark last year and I see no reason why it can't go very close again. BALLYANDY will be right at home in these conditions and every drop of rain will be welcomed, it's back below it's last win mark, has probably had little chance off that inflated mark but looks to have no excuses under optimum conditions today.

 

The one I most like and whose price I think is over generous is CARYS COMMODITY, it came to win on seasonal debut and had an unlucky fall, it should come on a bit fitness wise and if confidence not affected has proven in the past that it can handle the ground and the trip and it does seem to like flat trappy tracks like this.